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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  PPP FL-Gov Scott at 33/57 disapproval (4+ / 0-)

    loses by 14(!) to Charlie Crist, 7 to Alex Sink and the highest vote share he can get is 42% against DWS.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    I'm no on board the anybody but Crist/Sink train.  Having a real Democrat from Florida would be great for potential future pres/VP candidates and Crist and Sink most certainly are disqualified from that.  That being said, I'd gladly root for either of them over Lex Luthor Rick Scott.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:09:24 AM PST

    •  Additionally (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb, MichaelNY

      Crist is at 49/38 favorable
      Sink is at 37/22 which is quite surprising
      Pam Iorio is at 24/16, not bad at all for low name rec
      Buddy Dyer is at 13/24 and should be unacceptable
      Even DWS is at 30/36
      And Nan Rich who has no name rec is at 9/16

      Sample is 68/15/11/6 W/B/H/O and 44/38/18 D/R/I, not that party ID is a particularly accurate metric in polling.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:12:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  One last tidbit (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        Scott is only at 49/38 approval among Republicans LOL!

        Crist is at 29/62 among Republicans, 70/16 among Dems

        Sink has a fairly good 23/33 among Republicans, 33/29 among Indies, and 51/9 among Dems.  She might not actually be that bad of a candidate, but I'd really love to see us cultivate a future national player from Florida and her 2010 gov campaign was abysmally executed.

        Dyer is negative even among Democrats at 18/22.  Why is this guy so unpopular?

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:16:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why is Sink disqualified? n/t (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, lordpet8, betelgeux, gabjoh

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:14:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Her campaign was run very poorly in 2010 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Maybe she could turn it around, but it takes a lot of finesse to run a national campaign and I just can't see her being successful in doing so.  Don't get me wrong, she could surprise us and end up being a great choice for VP, but with only her 2010 gov campaign to go on, it makes me want someone else like Pam Iorio who as former mayor of Tampa comes from the key swing region in the state.

        We'll just have to see how things play out in the primary I guess, but at this point it looks like Crist is going to be our nominee.  I'd much rather him run against Bill Young and scare him into retirement.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:22:52 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  former guv running for the house? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

          Not going to happen. Very few recent examples of that. Of course we have the possibility of Don't Cry for me Argentina Sanford going back to the house after a guv stint, but he was already in the house before that, and from pretty much the same district.

          Bill Janklow is the only recent guv in the past 20-30 years I can think of who went to the house from the guv mansion. And given SD only has 1 seat in the house, it's not much of a demotion in terms of represenation. Given how many seats FL has, no way does Crist run for the house. He should run for governor...he was a pretty good governor, even as a Republican. And evidence shows after a party switch, one tends to behave more like their newly-found party (Nate did an analysis on this a year or so ago after Arlen Specter switched)

          •  Mike Castle did as well (4+ / 0-)

            The politics of big states and small states are radically different. In small states, there's a lot of clout in being in the House, since you're often the only voice the state has in there. In big states, being in the House is the lowest rung, and it's somewhat common to leave the House to run for statewide posts. Adam Putnam left a top House post to run for Ag Secretary in Florida, for example. And old Dan Lungren left the House in the '90s to be California's AG.

            Which is to say that Crist running for the House is not very likely at all.

          •  Oh course he wouldn't (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Neither would Brian Schweitzer, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't be great candidates.  One can always dream :)

            I do wish Schweitzer would send Baucus packing though, but that's probably very unlikely too.  I just don't see how a small state former governor like Schweitzer gets on the national ticket as anything other than VP and he'll have been out of office for 4 years by 2016.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:44:30 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not impossible to imagine (5+ / 0-)

              1. He adopts an Iowa-first strategy, shakes every hand in the state. His populist, friendly style would fit well there.
              2. If he wins Iowa, he becomes a top-tier candidate. My guess is he bypasses NH (probably is won by Cuomo or O'Malley, or another technocratic type), and works hard in NV and SC. He wins either of those, he's a frontrunner. Both, and it's over.

              Definitely, this gets easier with Cuomo as a foil. But in today's Democratic Party, I think technocrat moderate vs. progressive populist is a battle we can win, and Cuomo will have a black mark with nearly every interest in the Democratic Party.

              •  Very true and if anyone is going to make history (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, GoUBears

                and become the first person from a 1 CD state to become president, my money would absolutely be on Schweitzer.

                I would love to see him stay involved in politics as he's the embodiment of what we should want in a populist Democrat (along with Ted Strickland as a close second).  His veto "branding" was all sorts of awesome.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:23:52 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I dream the same dream (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Crist would force Young into retirement for sure. History aside, he's also extremely ambitious and wouldn't do it...some unambitious governor might....like the govs in Alabama or Mississippi. Not saying that'll happen either...but they're more likely than Crist. On electability grounds, I am for Crist. But he is blatantly ambitious to a fault

          •  that's still better than Julian Carroll (4+ / 0-)

            the former governor of Kentucky who now serves in the state senate.

            "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

            by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:51:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  amazing how time passes (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but Specter switched nearly four years ago.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:43:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  When I was in undergrad back in 2004, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            one of my political science classes looked at the evidence around behavior of party switchers.  It was the same things that Nate said years later, party switchers move to the middle of their party.

            One of the theories is that switching parties is a big deal - it's more than just a label.  So when you do it, you do it whole-heartedly.

            One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

            by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:05:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Ah, I misread your first comment. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf

          I skipped over the Pres/VP spot part, and thought you were saying she wasn't a real Dem (a la Crist).

          But I disagree.  That's not an overriding goal, and is she can win in 2014, I think she'd be a fine governor.  I qouldn't not support someoen simply because they wouldn't be a good candidate for higher office.

          One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

          by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:36:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Sink husband died last month (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        so I don't even kno if she wants to run again. But I'm not on the Charlie Crist bandwagon. And I hope he doesn't run. If Him nor Sink runs, then my favorite is Iorio, who've I has always took a liking to.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:37:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I like her too. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Has she said anything about running or not running?

          (As a fellow AU grad, I'd love to see her in the top spot.)

          One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

          by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:04:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  She hasn't said anything about running but.. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, MichaelNY

            her comments on trying to reform elections in Florida and her book tour you'll think those are the sign of somebody whose interested in running. If Crist run he should have her as her Lieutenant.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:18:45 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  What makes Sink not a "real Democrat"? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Zack from the SFV

      I think she's certainly real; I just didn't like her stinking up her last race.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:12:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nothing, I should have clarified that "real" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        referred to Crist, not Sink.  With Sink I wanted to highlight her poor 2010 campaign and how that would prevent us from building up a future national ticket player were she to win (unlike say, Pam Iorio) though it's well within reason that Sink's campaign skills improve.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:18:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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