On May 24, 2011, many a political junkie will have their eyes fixated on the NY-26 race. As usual, most results in this race will probably be reported by county. This district, based in the "GLOW" suburbs of Rochester and Buffalo, contains parts of Niagara, Orleans, Erie, and Monroe counties, as well as all of Livingston, Genesee, and Wyoming counties (three letters of GLOW). In 2008, the Erie portion of the district (about 30% of the district's total population) narrowly voted for Obama, but the rest of the district went strongly Republican, leading the district to vote 52-46 McCain overall.
To win the district, Hochul will obviously have to outperform Obama. As Erie was the only county in the district to vote for Obama and Hochul is an elected official there, it's probably fair to assume it will be Hochul's best county. Erie is Hochul's home, although she actually lives in the NY-27 portion of it. Jack Davis and Jane Corwin live in the NY-26 portion of Erie, but it's hard to imagine them winning here, unless Corwin wins by an unexpectedly large margin.
For an analysis of how each county has voted for Congress over the past decade, read on.
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