Welcome to the final edition of OGGoldy’s Minnesota legislative elections. Minnesota campaign finance reports were released on 10/28 in advance of the November 3rd general election. Districts 1-28 are considered “Outstate” Minnesota, and are outside of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area, while districts 29-67 are “Metro” districts in the Twin Cities area. More granularly, 29-58 are suburban and exurban seats, while 59-67 are urban districts in Minneapolis and St. Paul proper. The DFL currently holds a 75-59 majority in the chamber after flipping the chamber in the 2018 elections. The Senate is currently held by Republicans 35-32 after the 2016 elections, and flipping SD11 in a special election in early 2019. This will be the first edition that has all 201 seats mentioned. The 3 races which are included for partisan reference are 2012 Pres (Obama-Romney), 2016 Pres (Clinton-Trump) and 2018 Gov (Walz-Johnson). 2012 and had basically the same statewide margin, so the differences between those two races shows pretty indicatively the movement of the district over this decade. Pre-primary ratings in parentheses.
The numbered districts can be found here (PDF Warning)
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This used to be a Democratic district, but has shifted had right in recent cycles. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans and they haven’t looked back. Senator Mark Johnson is going to win a second term after winning handily in 2016. Dan Fabian (R) in HD-1A is retiring after 10 years. He will likely be replaced by another Republican, turkey farmer John Burkel who won the August primary. Durkel’s Dem opponent is running a respectable campaign but this area is too out of reach for Democrats these days.
House 1A: Romney (R) 54-43, Trump (R) 65-28, Johnson (R) 60-36
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 1B: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 57-40
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 1 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 2: This district lies directly to the east of SD1 in NW Minnesota. Freshman GOP Senator Paul Utke defeated a long-entrenched incumbent DFLer in 2016 and is looking good for reelection in 2020 against local White Lake Nation official Leonard Roy. Roy, like most DFLers this cycle has outraised Utke, but the race will not be close on election day. District 2A is essentially the half of the Bemidji area that is in MN-7, the Red Lake Indian Reservation, and Lake of the Woods. This seat has changed hands multiple times in the last few cycles, with Democrat Roger Erickson alternating winning in 08, and 12, with Republican David Hancock winning in 10 and 14. Since then, Grossell has largely been able to coast to reelection, and is a large favorite to do so again this year. This win coupled with the reddening of the district, Grossell is a prohibitive favorite for reelection against DFL perennial candidate Jeremiah Liend (last seen running as a running a write-in candidate against Tim Walz in 2018). Unlikely many other Dems running in hopeless districts this cycle, Liend has not garnered much in terms of backing or fundraising, only given a cursory DFL endorsement by virtue of being the only Dem in the race. Directly to the south of 2A is the more GOP friendly 2B with Park Rapids at its core. Republican Steve Green won this redrawn seat in 2012 and has held it since. Green will be facing retired construction company owner David Suby. Suby has actually outraised Green about 2:1, but it won’t matter, as Green is an entrenched over-performing incumbent and this is a district in the middle of nowhere, trending rightward.
House 2A: Romney (R) 50-48, Trump (R), 60-33, Johnson 55-41,
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 2B: Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 64-29, Johnson (R) 59-37 Safe R
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 2 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA: Home to former Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk. Bakk was unceremoniously removed as Dem leader of the Senate this cycle, but he is running for reelection nonetheless. Bakk did get a last second Some Dude challenger in Christopher Hogan (who does not have a campaign website beyond Facebook nor has raised much money at all). Funnily though Hogan appears to be using his personal Twitter as his only campaign mechanism; his Twitter handle is CHoganDuluthMN, which would be fine, expect Duluth isn’t even in the district. Woops. Incumbent DFL Reps Rob Ecklund and Mary Murphy both also have GOP opposition in Thomas Manninen (a 2020 law school graduate) and Andrew Hjelle. Manninen seems to be running an actual campaign, though he has been gophering away his campaign cash, having spent almost nothing. It seems as though this race for Manninen is using this as a springboard to get some seed cash for a future run in a potentially more favorable district/cycle. Hjelle is not a serious candidate.
House 3A: Obama (D) 55-42, Trump (R) 49-42, Walz (D) 52-44
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 3B: Obama (D) 60-38, Clinton (D) 50-42 Franken (D) 58-39
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 3 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. Senator Kent Eken (D) is facing Some Dude GOP candidate Mark Larson, who has taken his candidacy not as a political campaign, but rather as a soap box to single-issue focus on combatting child sex trafficking. He isn’t campaigning in electoral terms, but is using his moment in the sun to fight child sex trafficking. This was a seat the GOP had hoped would be in play, but it simply isn’t this cycle. The city of Moorhead more or less makes up the 4A half of the district, and the retirement of 8-year incumbent Ben Lien has led to our first major upset situation in the state. The area DFL endorsed Some Dude DFL activist Heather Keeler over Moorhead City Councilman Chuck Hendrickson. With the backing of the DFL, Keeler went on to defeat Hendrickson in the August primary 2:1, whereafter she got a ton of much-needed party support in terms of getting her campaign resembling something professional-level complete with financing, a campaign manager, website, and infrastructure. While Keeler is not a great candidate on paper, Moorhead is sufficiently liberal where she should be able to win her election against 2016 SD4 Also-ran candidate Edwin Hahn (R). It’s an outstate district, but one anchored by one of the bluest cities (and college town) Moorhead, and with the polishing Keeler has been getting, this is a Likely D hold. In the more Republican (rural areas around Moorhead) 4B Paul Marquart (DFL) an electoral juggernaut in his rural/”suburban” Clay County and got a last-minute Some Dude level challenger in Brian Anderson, who Marquart will certainly defeat for an 11th term Marquart remains OGGoldy’s early favorite for a congressional run in 2022, depending on map lines.
House 4A: Obama (D) 55-42, Clinton (D) 48-41, Walz (D) 56-39
Rating: Likely D (Lean D)
House 4B: Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 57-35, Johnson (R) 53-43
Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 4 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 5: The amalgam district, and is the most politically interesting in outstate Minnesota, with all of the seats hotly contested in 2020: 5B is the western influences of the Iron Range, and 5A is decisively not. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere, and it stretches from Bemidji on the west, and Grand Rapids and western Itasca County in the east. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. Freshman GOP Senator Justin Eichorn won this seat in 2016 by narrowly unseating then-incumbent Tom Saxhaug, and faces a strong challenger in 4-term incumbent mayor of Bemidji Rita Albrecht. Albrecht has significantly outraised Eichorn and this is turning out to be a high dollar affair. Given the trends in the area relative to the rest of the state, Eichorn is the slightest of favorites, but if Biden wins the state by 10, this seat will flip to Albrecht. In 5A we have our first marquee House race in numerical order. Former 1-term GOP Rep Matt Bliss is facing off against current (and former) DFL Rep John Persell in one of the most highly contested races of that cycle: a rubber match, with Bliss narrowly winning in 2016 and Persell winning in 2018. Both parties are 100% solidified with “their” candidate, and have been since the day after election day 2018. Persell unseated Bliss by a whopping 11 votes last cycle (by far the lowest margin of any seat in the entire state), and there’s no reason to believe this race will be less close now. 100% Toss-up between the two heavyweights, but as this is a “no Toss-up” prediction, the slightest edge goes to Bliss, as this is an area that Republicans are laser focusing on, and having POTUS and VPOTUS attention paid en mass. In 5B we reenter the Iron Range from the west, home of incumbent Republican Rep Sandy Layman who up until the filing deadline was looking to be a prohibitive favorite for another term, as she is a skilled politician. However, at the last hour she pulled a switcheroo and baton-passed in Spencer Igo, a young political staffer. Igo has fundraised respectably well. Dems did get a decent B-level challenger against Layman in La Prairie City Councilman Joe Abeyta. Abeyta and Igo seem to be running pretty evenly in the cash and campaign game, but the trends in this seat are hard to deny that Igo has the slightest of edges.
House 5A: Obama (D) 51-46, Trump (R) 51-39, Walz (D) 48-47
Rating: Lean R (Toss-up)
House 5B: Obama (D) 49-48, Trump (R) 56-36, Johnson (R) 52-45
Rating: Lean R (Likely R)
Senate 5 Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range: heavily DFL turf, though was seduced by Trump specifically in 2016. Incumbent Senator Dave Tomassoni dispatched of a young challenger from his left flank in the primary against Christopher Horoshak. Tomassoni has been a pretty mainstream Dem over his 28-year legislative career, and while this seat is moving to the right and likely to continue doing so, the GOP is not positioned to seriously compete this cycle, as Jim Moren is not a serious candidate and doesn’t even have a website. Julie Sandstede (DFL) has settled into her seat representing 6A, which is markedly different than the wild 2016 primary that got her into office in the first place. She faces off against teacher Rob Farnsworth, her 2016 opponent, again in 2020; Sandstede won that election 59-40, and this election will be similar. Over in 6B we have freshman DFL Rep Dave Lislegard running in his first reelection bid against Republican Julie Buria, a Mountain Iron City Councilwoman. This election is hinging on the PolyMet mining issue, which is locally quite popular but significantly less popular in the rest of the state. Lislegard is moderately for the mining while Buria is 100% all-in on it. An anti-mining Dem would be at serious risk of losing this long-DFL-held seat, but Lislegard has seemed to thread the needle on the issue, and while Buria has a pulse beyond that of most recent GOP candidates in the region, it won’t be enough in 2020.
House 6A: Obama (D) 63-34, Trump (R) 47-44, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 6B Obama (D) 62-36 Trump (R) 47-45, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 6 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, as well as the hub and port of the Iron Range that Dems win by 35-40 in most every election. Senator Erick Simonson got into a bit of a spat with his local party office and actually lost the endorsement against DFL a member of the endorsing committee: Jen McEwen. Long story short, Simonson did NOT handle that gracefully at all and got demolished in the primary, losing 74-26 as an incumbent without major legal troubles (Is that some kind of record?) McEwen will become the next State Senator after she defeats Simonson’s 2016 GOP opponent Donna Berghstrom (Simonson won by 35 last time) given the political leanings of the district. Representatives Jennifer Schultz and Liz Olson are both safely going to be reelected as DFLers in November. The GOP nominated Tom Sullivan and Art Johnson, FWIW.
House 7A: Obama (D) 67-30, Clinton (D) 61-28, Walz (D) 71-26
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 7B Obama (D) 70-28, Clinton (D) 58-32, Walz (D) 67-28
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 7 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 8: This is blood red farm territory in NW Minnesota, so much so that Amy Klobuchar lost this area in 2006. That really does sum up the political leanings of Ottertail and Douglas Counties. No real race in the Senate as Bill Ingebrigtsen will be reelected easily to a 5th term. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is retiring after 24 years. Republicans have seemed to settle on a young Harvard educated venture capitalist named Jordan Rasmusson, which is an interesting profile for a heavily agricultural area, but he will add State Representative to his job title come January regardless. This entire area should be safely Republican; however, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson is a famously loud candidate that nearly lost her district, which is one of the most heavily Republican in the entire state. Dems have basically no bench here, which leaves all of the seats Safely in the GOP column. Democrats are running the daughter of a long-ago local mayor Michelle Anderson, factory worker Brittney Johnson, and local businesswoman Carol Wenner for SD6, HD6A and HD6B respectively.
House 8A: Romney (R) 59-39, Trump (R) 63-31, Johnson (R) 59-39
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 8B: Romney (R) 58-40, Trump (R) 65-28, Johnson (R) 61-36
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 8 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 9: This is an agricultural and summer cabin district north of St. Cloud and west of Brainerd that was not-so-long-ago competitive for Democrats, but those days are a distant memory by now. Republican Senate Leader Paul Gazelka defeated conspiracy theorist Richard Dahl in a formality of a primary, and will win another term in his comfy Senate Seat against DFL Some Dude A. John Peterson. GOP Representatives John Poston and Ron Kresha will win against Alex Hering (Poston’s 2018 opponent he defeated 69-31) and first-time candidate Laura Wright respectively.
House 9A: Romney (R) 60-37, Trump (R) 70-23, McFadden (R) 54-41
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House B Romney (R) 60-37, Trump (R) 73-21, Johnson (R) 67-30
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 9 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 10: This is a sleepy north central Minnesota seat, and is home to Joe Radinovich. The fact that he was able to win 10B in 2012 as a 26-year-old kid is pretty amazing in retrospect. Senator Carrie Rudd (R) is going to win a 3rd term after dispatching conspiracy theorist Shaun Christian Hansen (Seriously, what is it with the conspiracy theorists this year? 2020 is weird) in the primary and will repeat that feat against Some Dude DFLer Steve Samuelson. 10A, which consists mostly of Brainerd with some of western Crow Wing County in there as well, is the more Republican of the two districts. 2-term GOP Rep. Josh Heintzman is getting a layup run for reelection against his 2018 opponent Dale Menk (Heintzman won 62-38 then, and the district isn’t getting bluer). The man who defeated the aforementioned Joe Radinovich in 2014, Dale Lueck, also has a sleepwalk of a race against another Some Dude: Gaylene Spolorich.
House 10A Romney (R) 55-43, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House B Romney (R) 53-44, Trump (R) 62-31, Johnson (D) 58-38
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 10 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). Due to it being a combination of Duluth metro spillover and the Fond du Lac reservation, the DFL is dominant in Carlton County to the north, while the southern part of the district is Republican and becoming even more so. Republican Senator Jason Rarick won his seat in a 2019 special election against the son of the former Senator in this seat. He will be a strong favorite for reelection in November but does have a strong challenger in former TV anchor and 2018 MN-8 candidate Michelle Lee. What is keeping this seat out of the Safe R column is not the fact that the DFL won in 2016, but the fact that Lee has outraised Rarick 2:1 and has high name recognition from her time on TV and her also-ran primary run for CD-8 two years ago. In 11A, DFL incumbent Mike Sundin (DFL) is likely to win a 5th term against Republican realtor Jeff Dotseth in a 2018 rematch (Sundlin won the first round 58-42). In 11B, Nathan Nelson (R) won the special election to replace Rarick upon Rarick moving to the Senate. Nelson will face off against local farmer Jack Frechette. Frechette has no chance at winning, but he has outraised the incumbent 2:1 and will keep it more respectable than a generic Some Dude, but Hinckley is too far to the right for a DFLer to win these days.
House 11A: Obama (D) 62-36, Clinton (D) 47-45, Walz (D) 56-41
Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
House 11B: Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 55-40
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 11 Rating: Likely R (Likely R)
District 12: As recently as 2012, Democrats could still win some of these expansive farmland districts. This is Collin Peterson country, with sugar beets, corn, and soybeans as far as the eyes can see. Those days seem but a distant memory here in 2020, as the district has solidified strongly into the GOP column now. State Senator Torrey Westrom (R), who is best known nationally as the guy who lost to Collin Peterson for MN-7 in 2014. Locally he is known as a wildly popular State Senator, and will easily win another term in St. Paul against local museum curator Jill Abahsain. . The Dem running against incumbent 12A GOP Rep Jeff Backer is retired teacher Murray Smart, for the second cycle in a row. True to form in rural America, Smart was actually Backer’s high school social studies teacher way back when. Backer won Round 1 62-38, which seems like a pretty reasonable expectation for the rematch. 12B is substantially more Republican than 12A, and incumbent Paul Anderson (R) has another rematch this year opponent this year, against local musician Ben Schrimers. Anderson won 71-29, just to paint a picture of what this race will look like in November.
House 12A: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump 59-33, Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 12B: Romney (R) 62-36, Trump 70-24 Johnson (R) 65-33
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 12 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud, and is generally quite Republican. This Senate seat was the location of a great deal of drama in 2018 when former State Senate President Michelle Fischbach was forced to ascend to the office of Lieutenant Governor against her will, and attempted to retain her senate seat up until the Minnesota Supreme Court told her that she was LG and no longer a State Senator. It was a super awkward chain of events that was started off by Al Franken resigning from the US Senate and Mark Dayton appointing his then-LG Tine Smith to the Senate. This year is shaking out to be much more benign. Fischbach’s 2016 self-avowed socialist (officially running on the DFL line) Mike Willemsen is running again, and is unlikely to do any better against now-incumbent Senator Jeff Howe (R), which is to say he will likely lose 69-31 again. Freshman GOP 12A Representative Lisa Demuth drew only a token Some Dude candidate Katy Westlund, and will not need to be campaigning this year. Next door in 13B, Republican incumbent Tim O’Driscoll isn’t in any real danger against Air Force veteran and cyber security expert Ben Carollo. Carollo ran an aborded 2018 campaign against O’Driscoll but dropped out when he did not get the endorsement. While Carollo has a flashy website, as befitting an IT guy candidate, his campaign hasn’t raised much money and is not going to seriously challenge O’Driscoll.
House 13A: Romney (R) 57-41, Trump (R) 64-29, Johnson (R) 59-37
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 13B: Romney (R) 57-41, Trump (R) 63-30, Johnson (R) 58-38
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 13 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 14: This district is a dot of purple in a sea of red, consisting of St. Cloud and the immediate surrounding area, and is home to St. Cloud State University. Freshman Senator Jerry Relph won by 139 votes against now-14B Representative Dan Wolgamott (D). Democrats see Relph as a prime target, and are running 2018 14A candidate Aric Putnam. Putnam lost the more Republican half of the district by 4 to GOP State Rep Tama Theis. SD14 is a highly contentious battleground. Putnam has outraised the incumbent Relph, Putnam has been on the attack against Relph for systemically voting to remove Walz’ cabinet members one by one based solely on the GOP disagreeing with Walz using a state of emergency to be able to keep Minnesota from becoming Wisconsin, Florida, or New York when it comes to catastrophic COVID infections. Walz won this district and with Relph on his heals and getting badly outraised, this is a close election, but Putnam is pretty clearly the favorite at this point. SCSU being in session in person makes a big difference, as that was not always clearly going to be the case over the summer. Speaking of Tama Theis, she is running for reelection in 14A, this time against retiring teacher Tami Calhoun. Calhoun won the party endorsement over local union electrician Joe Baratta on May 7th,, who then dropped out before the filing deadline preventing a primary. For a reason I have not been able to identify, neither Theis nor Calhoun are fundraising super well, but Calhoun has a slight dollar advantage. Both parties have a vested interest in reducing down ticket vote splitting, as the Senate race is seen of paramount importance as one of the 2-3 most important elections in the entire state. We’re keeping this seat at Lean R given the fact that Theis is the incumbent, and Calhoun has not proven she is a strong candidate than Putnam in 2018, whom was defeated by Theis that cycle. District 14B has seen perhaps the wildest swings of any House district in the state this decade. This is largely due to the fact that St. Cloud State University, with its 15,000 students, makes up a large portion of this district, and they tend to have inconsistent turnout in various elections to put it mildly. In 2018 the aforementioned Dan Wolgamott defeated the then-Ways and Means Chairman Jim Knoblach in a bizarre election where Knoblach was outed as a piece of shit human by his daughter, causing him to end his campaign without the ability to be replaced on the ballot. Wolgamott is running against archconservative St. Cloud City Councilman Paul Brandmire. Brandmire seems to have caught the Theis/Calhoun bug and not gotten word that fundraising is a thing that politicians do, and Wolgamott has fundraised respectably well, if not exceptionally so. SCSU having students on campus definitely helps solidify Wogamott as a strong favorite. Not quite Safe D, but only just.
House 14A: Romney (R) 49-47, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 49-47
Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
House 14B, Obama (D) 53-43, Trump (R) 46-43, Walz (D) 52-42
Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
Senate 14 Rating: Lean D (Toss-up) (flip)
District 15: This is a Republican area east of St. Cloud, with the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe reservation in 15A. Freshman GOP Senator Andrew Mathews is running for reelection for the first time against railroad worker Brent Krist, who is not an electoral threat to Senator Mathews. Incumbent 15A GOP representative Sondra Erickson has represented this seat since 1998, and won’t be ending her streak now against DFL Some Dude Calvin Schmock. In the more conservative 15B, Freshman Republican Rep Shane Mekeland is easily dispatched a solidly TEA-flavored SoCon retired army veteran John Ulrick in the GOP primary 72-28. Ulrick will assuredly defeat DFL challenger Ron Theissen, who is of no relation to current Minnesota Supreme Court Judge / former Minnesota Speaker of the House Paul Theissen.
House 15A: Romney (R) 55-42 Trump (R) 66-26, Johnson (R) 61-35
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 15B: Romney (R) 63-35, Trump (R) 71-22, Johnson (R) 66-30
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 15 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district. Senator Gary Dahms, as well as Representatives Chris Swendzinksi, Paul Torkelson, all Republicans, are going to be reelection. Easily. Dahms doesn’t have a DFL opponent, but has drawn a Legal Marijuana Now opponent in Stoney Preslicka (fitting name, considering). The Representatives drew Some Dude DFL challengers Doria Drost and Mindy Kimmel, with Kimmel being a repeat challenger from 2018 (losing 63-37). Technically Torkelson also had a GOP primary challenger Tammy Houle, but Torkelson won 79-21 in August.
House 16A: Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 60-31, Johnson (R) 56-41
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 16B: Romney (R) 57-40 Trump (R) 64-27 Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 16 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This used to be much more DFL leaning than the southern bank, though has moved hard and fast rightward in the last few cycles. With former State Rep & Senator Lyle Koenen’s comeback bid to his former House Seat squelched hard in 2018, that likely marks the end of any DFL electoral possibilities here. The man who unseated Koenen in 2016 is GOP Senator Andrew Lang. Lang faces off a decent B-list candidate in Wilmar City Councilman Fernando Alvardo. Alvardo has some life to him campaign-wise, but Lang is not going to be unseated. 17A incumbent Tim Miller, 1 of 4 members of the New Republican, aka “Temper Tantrum Caucus” formed when rural a few rural Republican representatives got mad at the suburban/exurban GOP leadership in the wake if the resounding 2018 defeat in the House, is running for reelection against Ben Dolan, the winner of the DFL primary, and a LMN candidate in Ed Engelmann. 17B GOP incumbent Dave Baker is going to win against college student Logan Kortgard.
House 17A: Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 63-30, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 17B Romney (R) 51-47, Trump (R) 57-35, Johnson (R) 55-42
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 17 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. The Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and will win easily. Senator Scott Newman is facing county DFL Party Chair Chad Tschimperle. In 18A, longtime 18A incumbent Dean Urdahl (R) is running again without opposition, for the second time in 3 cycles. In 18B, incumbent Republican representative Glen Gruenhagen faces a no-name Dem Heather Bakke.
House 18A: Romney (R), 58-40 Trump (R) 65-27, Johnson (R) 61-35
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House B Romney (R) 60-37 Trump (R) 67-25, Johnson (R) 67-33
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Seante Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 19: This is essentially Mankato and Nicollet County in south-central Minnesota, and is pretty blue turf. Freshman Senator Nick Frentz (D) doesn’t currently have any real opponent for and the local GOP from what I understand failed to get someone to run other than conspiracy theorist Elizabeth Bangert, who refuses to respond to media inquiries, create a campaign website, or provide reporting to the state on campaign financing (if there is any at all). The local GOP declined to endorsement Bangert, even though she was the only Republican file. Incumbent 19A Representative Jeff Brand is running for his first reelection to the House. Retired GOP nurse Susan Akland filed, and much to the chagrin chagrin of local and state Republicans, former 3-time candidate Kim Spears did not. Akland is one of the few Republicans in the state to outraise a Dem incumbent, though given the fact Walz just won this area by 19 last cycle, it is tough to see Akland ousting the incumbent. Likely D. In 19B, which is effectively Mankato proper, DFLer Jack Considine is retiring after 6 years. The 19A DFL endorsement went, perhaps in a bit of an upset, to AFSCME official Luke Frederick against former Mankato City Councilman Jason Mattick. Frederick is the prohibitive favorite in November against Some Dude GOP last-second filer Jeremy Loger. Loger does not have a website and is not raising money for his campaign.
House 19A: Obama (D) 52-45, Trump (R) 47-43, Walz (D) 58-39
Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
House 19B: Obama (D) 57-40, Clinton (D) 48-41, Walz (D) 63-33
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 19 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far-flung exurbs (A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland and the liberal college town of Northfield, former home of Senator Paul Wellstone. Freshman Senator Rich Draheim (R) is running for reelection for the first time after unseating former State Senator Kevil Dahle in 2016. The local DFL endorsed retired Navy officer Jon Olson, over Northfield city councilwoman Suzie Nakasian, with Olson getting the nomination without a primary. This turned out to be a solid move, as Olson has lit the campaign trail on fire, even getting Draheim to recant on his “no negative ad” pledge made earlier in the cycle. Olson has outraised Draheim well over 3:1 and is campaigning circles around the freshman incumbent. With the Northfield universities in session in person (was not clear earlier in the cycle) this race is getting flipped from red to blue, though it would be a toss-up if such a rating were allowed in a final rating. GOP incumbent Bob Vogel is retiring after 3 terms, and Republicans look poised to hold this seat. Local School Board Vice Chair Erina Prom is the DFL candidate, but has lagged in fundraising against local banking executive Brian Pfarr (R), and Pfarr is going to win the seat. In 20B incumbent DFLer Todd Lippert will be having a 2018 rematch against trucker Josh Gare, a matchup Lippert won 55-45. Lippert entered the race as a favorite with the (i) next to his name. But while Republicans financed Gare in 2018, he has raised on 1,000 dollars this cycle, and is merely a name on a ballot at this point so this race comes off the board entirely.
House 20A: Romney (R) 58-40, Trump (R) 62-30, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Safe R (Likely R)
House 20B: Obama (D) 54-44, Clinton (D) 47-46, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Safe D (Likely D)
Senate 20 Rating: Lean D (Lean R)
District 21: This is very marginal territory overall that essentially covers the SE corner of MN-2 along the Mississippi river. Freshman State Senator Michael Goggin (R) is running for reelection in this Red Wing (of Red Wing Boot fame) based seat after narrowly unseating former Senator Matt Schmit (D) in 2016. The local DFL went with moderate farmer and solar power executive Ralph Kaehler. Kaehler served as a agricultural trade representative for both governors Jesse Venture (I) and Tim Pawlenty (R). Kaehler is considered a top-level recruit for the DFL, and he defeated more liberal challengers at the convention. Kaehler, like many DFL challengers, has outraised Goggin 2:1 this year. While this district is sufficiently red to prevent it from going rom Lean R to Lean D in this set of ratings, it is close and no one should be shocked if Kaehler pulls off the mild upset. in 21A GOP Rep Barb Haley is running for reelection and she is facing off against teacher Matt Bruns. Haley won by a surprisingly large margin in this purple seat in 2018 against a higher-level challenger than Bruns, thus giving her a Likely R rating in this purple seat. In the more Republican 21B, incumbent Steve Drazkowski (another member of the Temper Tantrum Caucus) (R) is running again against Dem Elgin City Councilwoman Elise Diesslin, but the fact Diesslin is an elected politician does not change 21B’s rating from Safe R.
House 21A: Obama (D) 51-47, Trump(R) 51-40, Walz (D) 48-47
Rating: Likely R (Likely R)
House 21B: Romney (R) 54-44, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 55-42
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 21 Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
District 22: This is the southwest corner of the state, and full of corn fields. Once, long ago, able to be won by Democrats, the area is now very Republican, and contains the only 2 counties in the entire state Amy Klobuchar lost in 2012: Rock and Pipestone. Senator Bill Weber faces off against Dem counselor Shawna Marshall. Rep Joe Schomacker (R-22A) first won this seat 6 months getting his MPA from George Washington University at age 24 in 2010. 10 years later he is going into a pretty uneventful reelection campaign against Some Dude Christ Baumberger. Next door in 22B, Rod Hamilton, first elected in 2004, is equally assured of a 9th term against his own Some Dude DFL challenger counselor Lynn Herrick.
House 22A: Romney (R) 56-41, Trump(R) 66-27, Johnson (R) 60-38
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 22B: Romney (R) 54-44, Trump (R) 63-30, Johnson (R) 55-42
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 22 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border: pretty conservative turf. Senator Julie Rosen will make it to an even 20 years in the Senate by the end of her next term, as she has no Dem opponent, and faces only a token Legal Marijuana Now party candidate David Pulkrabek. 23A will have a new representative for the first time in 26 years, as long-time GOP incumbent Bob Gunther is hanging it up to enjoy a peaceful retirement at home. The race to replace Gunther was supposed to be pretty smooth sailing, but the GOP endorsement of Elmore mayor Bjorn Olson (a non-controversial mainstream Republican) did not sit well with the minority of the convention delegates who preferred firebrand conservative engineer Mike Sukalski. Sukalskis mounted a full court press primary against the endorsed mayor, though in spite of the fact Sukalski significantly outraised Olson, Olson won the primary 57-43 and Olson emerged slightly battered, but assured of a House seat after he defeats local nurse Patricia Fahey-Bacon (D). Incumbent 23B representative Jeremy Munson won a special election to replace Tony Cornish, who resigned in early 2018 due to being outed as a sexual predator. Jeremy Munson, a term and a half in, got a primary against local reindeer farmer (yes, a real job in Minnesota) Yvonne Simon, through Munson easily defeated her 79-21 in August. Munson is a heavy favorite against local Township Councilman Leroy McClelland. McClelland is a solid B-list recruit and this district isn’t so blood red that if the bottom falls out for the GOP it is out of reach. In a neutral environment this would be a Safe R seat, but given the environment, it hangs onto the board at Likely R
House 23A: Romney (R) 59-39, Trump (R) 66-27, Johnson (R) 58-39,
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 23B: Romney (R) 50-47, Trump (R) 59-32, Johnson (R) 50-47,
Rating: Likely R (Likely R)
Senate 23 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 24: This is a locally light red area around Owatana and Fairbault in southern Minnesota. Freshman Senator John Jasinski (R) unseated the former DFL Senator in his seat, and is running for reelection for the first time. Jasinski was a long-time mayor in Fairbault, so he has built up significant political capital in the area. His Dem opponent is a retired missionary / agricultural professor Roger Steinkamp, who spent most of his adult life around Africa teaching agricultural practices to rural populations there. Steinkamp has a cool personal story, but a really odd fit for this senate seat, and Jasinski is going to win reelection in a seat he wrested from the DFL just 4 years ago. The slightly more historically Republican half, 24A, incumbent GOP representative John Petersburg is running for a 5th term, and will face off against former 2-term State Rep (circa 1981-1985) Tom Shea. Shea is making a comeback bid after 36 years, which is an impressive span of time. Shea has not really picked up on the fundraising spectrum, and this district would be a massive uphill climb for any DFLer; Shea’s comeback bid is not going to end in a return trip to St. Paul. In 24B we have State Rep Brian Daniels (R) running against Some Dude Dem Ashley Martinez-Perez, who is not running a serious campaign. Daniels, FWIW is the brother of 29A State Representative Marion O’Niell.
House 24A: Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 57-33, Johnson (R) 53-44
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 24B: Romney (R) 50-47, Trump (R) 58-33, Johnson (R) 53-42
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 24 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Districts 25 and 26. I do these together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and have gone from a Republican bastion to a DFL stronghold in just a few short years. This used to be the land of Republicans like Gil Gutknecht, but those days have passed as the Mayo Clinic has exploded and more educated liberals move to the area for work. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats, as they have not seen the influx that Rochester proper has, though that is changing rather quickly in recent cycles with both GOP incumbents being held to single digits for the first time in a long time In the Senate, incumbent David Senjem (R-SD25) is running for reelection after holding his seat since 2003 and having for a period of time been the GOP leader in that chamber before being ousted for more ideologically pure leadership. in 2018. Senjem will face off against DFL businesswoman Sara Flick. Senjem has survived some rough reelections, so he is a slight favorite here, though he has been outraised over 2:1, and has taken some major hits for tying himself to Trump’s train, as well as going along with the subterfuge dismantling of Walz’ cabinet every time a special session is called. This district is changing, fast. In SD26, incumbent Carla Nelson is running for reelection. The DFL has a bit of a logjam here, as 2018 26B nominee and former Eyota mayor Tyrel Clark was boxed out of the endorsement for this seat in favor of retired physician Dr. Aleta Borrud. This move appears to have been a good call by the local DFL,as Borrud has crushed Nelson in fundraising nearly 3:1. Nelson, quite weirdly, has gone all-in on demanding that all schools open immediately for in-classroom teaching, despite the unpopularity of the position in the midst of the pandemic and as more schools are returning to remote learning as COVID cases spike; Nelson chairs the education committee in the senate, so her voice is one that is heard on the subject, and she is on the wrong side of public opinion and medical advice in a district dominated by the Mayo Clinic. It is al also a slow-pitch softball to Dr. Borrud’s wheelhouse. With the mayo clinic being such a central focus during COVID, and Borrud’s history as a physician there, this race is solidly in the Lean D category, and Republicans have turned off the money spigot to Nelson down the stretch, favoring a couple other pickup opportunities to mitigate the pending loss in SD26. 25A incumbent Duane Quame is coming off his weakest reelection performance to date in 2018 where he got caught napping, not fundraising, exhibiting some bizarre behavior on the campaign trail and was given a race he was not expecting. It appears as though he has not learned any lessons from 2018, and is raising less money than sacrificial lambs in safe seats. His 2020 opponent will be special education teacher Kim Hicks, who is not running a spectacular campaign herself, but has outraised Quame. One of these days being a feckless campaigner will cost Quame, though I am not sure if the tide will be quite high enough for Hicks to be swept in as a mediocre also-ran, but it’s not impossible or even improbable. In 25B, DFL incumbent Duane Sauke (D) is retiring after just 2 terms in St. Paul. The local DFL has endorsed ICU nurse Liz Boldon to try and hold this seat for the blue team. Republicans are running 2018 nominee Ken Bush (who lost to Sauke 60-40) for a second time, and will likely have the same margin losing to Bolden. In 26A we have DFL incumbent Tina Liebling, and got a last-second filing Some Dude GOPer Gary Melin. GOP Representative Nels Pierson is running for reelection after a near miss in 2018 against Tyrel Clark. Clark is not running again, but long-time local TV meteorologist Randy Brock is running for reelection. If you thought Quame was too energetic of a campaigner, Nels Pierson circa 2020 is your man! He has been outraised 4:1, and appears to be in full IDGAF mode in spite of being held to a 7-point win 2-years ago against a much less well-known opponent. Good luck on that one, Nels.
House 25A: Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 52-37, Johnson (R) 50-47
Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
House 25B: Obama (D) 53-44, Clinton (D) 50-40, Walz (D) 59-38
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 25 Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
House 26A: Obama (D) 57-40, Clinton (D) 53-36, Walz (D) 62-34
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 26B: Romney (R) 53-44, Trump (R) 53-38, Johnson (R) 50-47
Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
Senate 26 Rating: Lean D (Lean D) (FLIP)
Districts 27. This area is swingy historically DFL cornfields along the Iowa border, akin to neighboring IA-1 to the south. 27A is more or less Albert Lea/ Freeborn County, and 27B is more or less Austin/Mower County. Senator Dan Sparks (D) has held this seat since 2002 and faces his 2016 opponent in Gene Dornink. Dornink got within 9 points of Sparks in 2020. Notably, Dornink is the only GOP challenger in a competitive Senate race to actually outraise the DFL incumbent. This race has been seen as Target #1 for the MNGOP, and honestly it looks like this may be the end of Dan Sparks’ Senate tenure. In 27A, incumbent Republican Peggy Bennett has proven to be an electorally strong politician and put an end to this seat flipping back and forth with the political winds. Dems are putting up 36-year-old college student Thomas Martinez against the incumbent, but he is not a serious candidate. Oddly, an even LESS seriously Dem filed to run in the primary against Martinez, but pulled the incredibly odd move of officially dropping out after the filing deadline but before the primary; not that he was a serious candidate either, mind you; nevertheless Martinez won the primary 70-30, and will go on to lose to Bennet in the General. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has represented the area since 2004. Republicans are running local teacher Patricia Mueller. While both Poppe and Mueller have raised comparable and low amounts of money, neither party seems to be treating the race as a competitive one. Still, it was a Trump district and Poppe isn’t dominating the cash game, so it goes on the board at Likely D.
House 27A: Obama (D) 55-42,, Trump (R) 55-37, Walz (D) 48.48-48.03
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 27B Obama (D) 60-38, Trump (R) 50-42, Walz (D) 52-44
Rating: Likely D (Safe D)
Senate 27 Rating: Lean R (Toss-up) (Flip)
District 28: This is the southeastern corner of the state along the Iowa/Wisconsin border and the Mississippi river around and south of the college town of Winona. The northern part around Winona is generally a solidly DFL area, while the southern 28B is swingier. Senate President Jeremy Miller has won this seat for Republicans since 2010, and is one of the most DFL seat held by Republicans. Miller has proven to be a strong overperformer, but Democrats looking to eke out a lead in the chamber are hoping to trip him up this this year. The local DFL has endorsed Sarah Kruger, a local businesswoman to take on Miller. Kruger is keeping up with Miller on the cash front, and is hard on the campaign trail, which keeps this out of Safe R territory going into November. Incumbent 28A Rep Gene Pelowski (DFL) has represented the Winona area in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1986, and has not been challenged seriously in decades, wasn’t by anyone at all in 2018, and is repeating that same feat in 2020. In 28B there is Republican incumbent Greg Davids, who has represented this area more or less since 1991. He did lose for a single term in 2006, but won against the man who defeated him, Ken Tschumper against the 2008 headwind. Greg Davids faced a strong well-funding challenger in 2018 and still won by 11. This year Dems are basically punting by putting up Some Dude level candidate Jordan Fontenello, a local X-ray tech. Davids is safe for reelection
House 28A: Obama (D) 56-41, Clinton (D) 46-44, Walz (D) 58-38
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House B: Obama (D) 52-46, Trump (R) 55-37, Johnson (R) 48.59-48.35
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 28 Rating: Likely R (Likely R)
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs around Buffalo in blood red Wright County. 2-term year incumbent Republican Senator Bruce Anderson is running against Democratic Some Dude Chris Brazelton. 10-year incumbent 29A Representative Joe McDonald (R) will easily defeat his 2018 Dem opponent Renee Cardarelle, 8-year incumbent 29B Marion O’Neil also face off against equally low-profile Dem Joe Rosh. Safe R all around
House 29A: Romney (R) 60-38, Trump (R) 63-29, Johnson (R) 60-36,
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 29B Romney (R) 57-40, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 29 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican down ballot and centered about St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Senator Mary Kiffmeyer, a long-ago Minnesota Secretary state (from back when Republicans were capable of winning statewide) has found a nice home as a Minnesota State Senator and currently serves as President Pro Tempore. Kiffmeyer is safe for reelection against DFLer Dianne Nguyen. Incumbents Republican Paul Novotny (30A) won a special election in early 2020 to replace former representative Nick Zerwas who resigned in late 2019 due to major heart surgery at aged 38. Novotny is safe for winning his first full term against Dem Chad Hobot, the man he defeated 63-37 in the special election in February 2020. GOP incumbent Eric Lucero (30B) is going to beat Some Dude Brad Kovach in the B-side race.
House 30A Romney (R), 58-39 Trump (R), 61-30 Johnson (R) 58-38
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 30B Romney (R) 62-36, Trump (R) 62-29, Johnson (R) 59-37
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 30 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal and moving left, but this area is blood red exurbs. Michelle Benson (R) is running for a 4th term, and is going to easily dispatch her Dem challenger Kate Luthner. 31A is home to Speaker Kurt Daudt (R). Daudt seems to have solidified his hold on the GOP House after several cycles of musical chairs in both the House and Senate GOP leadership, and has found himself being the primary media antagonist against Walz. While Daudt dispatched of a token Republican primary challenger stemming from a bout of road rage (not kidding, nor is it Daudt’s only bout of vehicle related legal incidents). Dem challenger Brad Brown is not an electoral threat to him. In 31B side, we have 2-term GOP incumbent Cal Bahr. Bahr faces off against his 2016 and 2018 opponent Sue Larson, who he has beaten twice by 2:1 margins; it will be 3 come November.
House 31A Romney (R) 62-35, Trump (R) 69-24, Johnson (R) 64-31
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 31B Romney (R) 59-38, Trump (R) 63-29, Johnson (R) 61-35
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 31 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties, which up until fairly recently was winnable for Democrats, and as recently as 2010 had DFL representation in these seats. However those two counties became one of the Republican epicenters of the state over the last decade. In 2016 Senator Mark Koran unseated a less ideologically pure GOP Senator in the primary and went on to win election that November. Koran is running for a second term against DFL Some Dude Josh Fike. Koran will be handily reelected in this conservative Senate seat. 32A, which is more or less Cambridge and unpopulated areas in Isanti and western Chisago Counties, we have GOP Representative Brian Johnson, a former police officer once again faces off against DFL challenger Renae Berg and will win easily, as he did 63-36 in 2018. 32B had a big kerfuffle in 2016, with the Republican incumbent not actually living in the district but whose name couldn’t be stricken from the ballot, so the November 2016 election was meaningless. That set up an early 2017 special election, which was surprisingly close with Republican Anne Neu winning 53- 47. Neu did improve her standing in the 2018 election, which she won 58-42. Her DFL opponent Katie is not campaigning in any real way, so Neu is safe for reelection.
House 32A Romney (R) 57-41 Trump (R) 64-28 Johnson (R) 59-36
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 32B Romney (R) 55-43 Trump (R) 61-31 Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 32A: Safe R (Safe R)
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota have leaned Republican, though are clearly reacting rather intensely against Trump and the GOP. This district actually saw more than its fair share of insurgent Tea Party type candidates unseating incumbents in 2012 in their primaries, though that seems like a lifetime ago politically. Senator Dave Osmek (R) is the incumbent here. The DFL recruited, endorsed, and cleared the field for Gretchen Piper, a political newcomer. Piper does not have a pre-2020 political resume, but the small business owner has lit the fundraising world on fire, and has outraised Osmek nearly 5:1, and has waived public subsidy unlike Osmek.. What that means in practice is that Osmek cannot spend more than $102,800 this cycle as he is receiving matching state money per his fundraising. Meanwhile Piper is one of only a handful of candidates foregoing the spending limit and is fundraising balls to the walls, and has already surpassed the $102,800 threshold by nearly twice. This race, perhaps unsurprisingly, is shaping up to be the single most expensive state legislature race this year, and may exceed some congressional races in the state. This race takes place in the formerly conservative parts of Hennepin County which have been undergoing a rapid realignment during the Trump era. Osmek is on the ropes, but I just can’t bring myself to move this race into Lean D territory, but this may look like a foolish take in a week. Jerry Hertaus (R) in 33A represents all of the conservative sparsely populated areas on the western edge of Hennepin County. Hertaus will be facing against Maple Plain City Councilwoman Caitlin Cahill. While this area is moving left, it is still quite Republican and Herthaus is likely to win reelection, although Cahill appears to be running a solid campaign and has outraised Herthaus 2:1 and could pull off an upset if the bottom falls out for Trump in the far corners of Hennepin County. In the other half of the district, freshman Dem Rep Kelly Morrison is coming off of her win over Republican bomb-thrower Cindy Pugh (R) in the latter’s reelection bid. This remains ancestrally Republican turf though, and Morrison is not going to be coasting on easy street to a 2nd term. Minnetonka Beach (not to be confused with the much larger municipality of Minnetonka) City Councilman Andrew Myers snagged the GOP nod for this seat after fending off a much more conservative primary challenger. Myers is one of the few metro GOP House challengers that is running a serious campaign and in reality, he has outcampaigned most GOP Senators/Senate candidates. But he still has fallen short of Morrison’s haul. I waffled on moving this from Lean D to Likely D, but Myers has proven his mettle on the campaign trail in a way few Republicans have in the state this cycle.
House 33A: Romney (R) 62-36, Trump (R) 54-37, Johnson (R) 57-41
Rating: Likely R (Likely R)
House 33B: Romney (R) 55-44, Clinton (D) 45.5-45.0, Walz (D) 48.61-48.37
Rating: Lean D (Lean D)
Senate 33 Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
District 34: Maple Grove, with Rogers thrown into 34A. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove (and especially Rogers) is one of the places Republicans used to to run up the margins to be competitive statewide, though the political winds have shifted hard left as Maple Grove now nets votes for Dems, not the GOP. Senator Warren Limmer (R) has held his seat since first being elected in 1994, and has shown to be quite a strong electoral force, even has his district has changed under him. He faces off against his 2016 opponent Bonnie Westlin. Limmer won by 20 last time, but the political changes in Maple Grove in the last 4 years are remarkable. I admit I was skeptical of this being a real race with Westlin running again, but both parties are campaigning as if their lives depend on this seat, and Westlin has outraised Limmer over 4:1 and is running a congressional-caliber campaign with the full DFL apparatus pulling out all the stops for her. Based on the way the campaigns are behaving, this race is getting moved from Likely R all the way to Lean D, which is remarkable. In the more conservative half of the district, Freshman GOP Rep Kristin Robbins won her first electoral attempt in 2018 in this seat by 13. This year she is facing off against a different Navy veteran: Brian Raines. Robbins will win, as while Maple Grove is moving left, Dayton/Rogers haven’t been yet. Freshman Kristen Bahner (D) is the first Democrat to represent Maple Grove in the legislature in living memory, and did so by defeating the man she had lost by 10 to in 2016. Not a rubber match in her future though, as Republicans have settled on local Homemaker Dori Trossen this cycle. Pretty telling and bizarre Republicans couldn’t find anyone above Some Dude level in a seat that has been as Republican for so many decades, but as Minnesota native Bob Dylan says “The times, they are a changin’”
House 34A: Romney (R) 58-40, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 52-45
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 34B: Romney (R) 51-47, Clinton (D) 47-43, Walz (D) 52-44
Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
Senate 34 Rating: Lean D (Likely R)
District 35: This is the district straddling the Mississippi River in central Anoka County including Anoka and Coon Rapids. It has long had a quirky libertarian streak to it, and was the strongest area for Jesse Ventura in 98. Libertarianish Republican Jim Abeler is the State Senator here, and is a Paulite (I know, I know, some Paulites claim that it was a family decision to back Paul, but the fact of the matter is he did, and does have that streak in him) and fits the district pretty well. In spite of this being a light red district in suburbia, the DFL isn’t highly contesting the race, and David Nelson is not a serious candidate. Abeler is safe this cycle. The A side of 35 is home to freshman John Heinrich (R) who is running against a relatively weak Dem challenger Mike Erickson, a local retiree. Heinrich isn’t considered an especially strong incumbent, but he is safe for reelection this cycle. On the more Republican side, and Peggy Scott (R-Andover) is safe for her 7th term in the House against engineer Jason Ruffalo.
House 35A Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 53-37, Johnson (R) 50-44
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 35B: Romney (R) 57-41, Trump (R) 55-36, Johnson (R) 53-43
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 35 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 36: This is a center-left suburban district primarily made up of Champlain and Brooklyn Park. 2-term Senator John Hoffman (DFL) is running for reelection against a GOP Some Dude Karen Attia, who is apparently not campaigning or raising any significant money, giving Hoffman a nearly free pass. This stands in stark contrast as Republicans went HARD after Hoffman in 2016 but came up short 51-49. Given there is not “up” in candidate strength from Brookyln Park mayor Jeffrey Lunde (Hoffman’s 2016 opponent), Republicans are punting here entirely. Democrat Zach Stephenson won his first term in 36A after Republican Mark Uglem retired and the seat flipped hands. Republicans are running their 2018 candidate Bill Maresh who is FAR too conservative for this seat, underperformed the rest of the GOP ticket last cycle and is going to do the same again this year. 8-term incumbent DFL Representative Melissa Hortman is a perennial target of the GOP, but she seems to be remarkably consistent in her reelection victories against generally strong GOP opposition. This cycle, Hortmann has been promoted to Speaker by the DFL caucus after serving for 2 years as Minority Leader. After 2016 failed to unseat her, the MNGOP has given up on unseating her, and she does not face a serious candidate for the 2nd cycle in a row, and only faces token GOP opponent Scott Simmons.
House 36A: Romney (R) 49-48, Trump (R) 47-44, Walz (D) 50-46
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 36B Obama (D) 53-45, Clinton (D) 52-40, Walz (D) 57-39
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 36 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park, with a sliver of Coon Rapids. Blaine leans ever so slightly Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold and is close to 50/50, perhaps left leaning in the Era of Trump, while Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids are center-left suburbs that swing violently with the tide. This district was also one of the strongest Independence areas in the entire state, and was integral to Jesse Ventura’s victory in 1998, much like the adjacent district 35. Jerry Newton (DFL), an 83-year-old Freshman State Senator, is running for a second term in 2020. Against his 2016 opponent Brad Sanford. Newton beat Stanford by 3 that cycle, though that was more or less a fair fight in terms of campaign financing and a balanced electorate as well as being an open seat. This cycle none of that is true. This isn’t 100% Safe D, but a quarter step from it. 37A: The DFL won one of the narrowest elections in the state in 2016 when Erin Koegel edged out Republican Anthony Wilder. Koegel won the rematch by a much more impressive 12-point margin in 2018. The GOP appears to be punting on this district as only a last second filer from Some Dude Ken Wending. Wending is not a serious candidate and will lose by more than 12 points. 37B GOP incumbent Nolan West was forced to resign from his position as a GOP staffer in 2016 because of a number of super racist Facebook posts, including “It’s lynching time” in response to Obama winning election in 2012, even with being cut loose by the GOP and becoming a social leper, he managed to win a very narrow win that cycle and even more inexplicably won reelection by 154 votes in 2018 in spite of maintaining his status as a social pariah. For some reason, the DFL has decided to go with the man West edged out in 2018: Amir Malik, for a rematch. West’s luck seems more likely to run out than not as GOP resources have been laser focused on the Senate, and this is suburbia in the era of Trump.
House 37A, Obama (D) 53-44, Trump (R) 46-45, Walz (D) 53-42
Rating: Safe D (Likely D)
House 37B, Romney (R) 49-48, Trump (R) 48-43, Walz (D) 50-46
Rating: Lean D (Toss-up) (flip)
Senate 37 Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
District 38: This district includes the once dark-red exurbs and in the NW metro from Lino Lakes to Hugo, with 38B having some affluent purple/bluish suburbs thrown in towards the more populous southern edge of the district. Senator Roger Chamberlain (R) is running for his 3rd term as the area’s senator. Chamberlain seems to fit in the category of “unsuspecting old guard Senator in a seat changing from under him who has been massively outraised this cycle.” Which honest is a pretty apt depiction for a half dozen competitive seats this year. He has been outraised 4:1 by Dem accountant Justin Stofferahn. This is a Walz-won suburban district, and Chamberlain is clearly flat footed right now. While not as loud as SD34, the murmurings of Chamberlain falling behind can be heard. This would be a toss-up if such things were allowed, but given that they aren’t, Stofferahn has better than a coin flip’s chance at this point. 32-year GOP incumbent Linda Runbeck decided to retire earlier this year, which set off quite the rush to replace her. There was a 3-way race on the GOP side for the August 11th primary, which was won by Air National Guard Lt. Col Donald Raleigh who currently serves on the Blaine Park Commission. Dem lawyer Kris Fredrick was not considered a serious threat to Runbeck before she dropped out of the race early this summer, but has since picked up his fundraising massively, and go an upgraded campaign team. Interestingly, Fredrick got more votes in the Dem primary for this seat unopposed than the combined GOP field did in a contested primary. Fundraising between the two men have been on par with one another, but given that this is still a light red area, even if a left trending one, a small but clear advantage in Raleigh’s direction is evident. Freshman DFL Rep Ami Wazlawik is running again, and while her 2018 opponent Patti Anderson (former State Auditor Pat Awada) floated a rematch and pulled back before the filing deadline. Wazlawik beat Anderson 51-49 in a bit of an upset in 2018, leaving Republicans stuck with 21-year-old Hamline University student Elliott Engen. Engen, rather surprisingly, has proven to be a fundraising machine, keeping pace with Wazlawik. Wazlawik remains the favorite, but this Engen kid may be one to keep an eye on down the road.
House 38A: Romney (R) 54-44, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 50-47
Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
House 38A: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump (R) 46-45, Walz (D) 51-46
Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
Senate 38 Rating: Lean D (Likely R) (flip)
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half (39B) is dominated by purple Stillwater, with the northern half (39A) of the district dominated by red Forest Lake. This is Senator Karin Housley’s (R) district. Housley is running for reelection after losing to Senator Tina Smith in 2018. Democrats settled on local teacher Josiah Hill. Hill, like many Senate races, has outraised Housley 3:1 and Housley’s early advantage has grown small, and you shouldn’t be surprised if Hill unseats her. It should be noted that Housley only won her home Senate district in her 2018 race by 1013 votes total. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 7-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer is running for reelection. Dettmer over performs pretty much every other Republican in the area. Dems are running their 2018 candidate, lawyer Ann Mozey. Dettmer won by 11 last time, and that should be a good baseline for where the 2020 version will pan out. In the Stillwater-based 39B, Freshman DFL Rep Shelly Christensen won her first election by unseating then-incumbent GOP Rep Kathy Lohmer by 137 votes. Lohmer is not seeking a rematch, and Republicans have tapped realtor Joe Garofalo, another political newbie. In spite of not having an electoral resume, Garofalo has kept pace with Christensen on the campaign trail, and the race is getting moved to Lean D, as other seats in a similar situation have seen massive Dem fundraising advantages, but not here.
House 39A: Romney (R) 53-45, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 50-46
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 39B: Romney (R) 50-48, Trump 45.8-45.5, Walz (D) 51-46
Rating: Lean D (Likely D)
Senate 39 Rating: Lean R (Lean R)
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. Senator Chris Eaton (DFL) won her seat in the Senate in a 2011 special election and has been safe for reelection ever since. Eaton faces her 2016 opponent Robert Marvin (who she beat 68-32), and will beat him by a similar margin this cycle. 40A incumbent Mike Nelson actually drew and opponent this year, which he does about half the time. He faces Republican David True for the second cycle in a row after beating True 73-27 last time, so expect a blowout. 26-year old Freshman DFL Representative Samantha Vang, a member of the local Hmong community, is also safe in her reelection against Republican Charlotte Smith and LMN candidate Mary O’Connor.
House 40A: Obama (D) 70-29, Clinton (D) 67-26, Walz (D) 69-25
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 40B Obama (D), 68-29 Clinton (D), 65-27 Walz (D) 68-26
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 40 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some quite blue inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. I graduated high school in this district after relocating to the area when I was younger. Senator Carolyn Laine (D) is retiring after her second stint in St. Paul began just 4 years ago. 41A DFL Rep Carol Bernardy is safe for reelection in her own second stint in St Paul. DFL 41B Rep Mary Kunesh-Podein is going to be getting a promotion to the Senate. A clown-car of Democrats went for 41B, with the endorsement ultimately getting the endorsement, and the rest of the field respecting the endorsement preventing the need for a primary. All of the DFLers in this area are safe, just a matter of musical chairs.
House 41A: Obama (D) 59-38Clinton (D) 55-35, Walz (D) 62-34
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 41B: Obama (D) 62-35, Clinton (D) 61-29, Walz (D) 68-28
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 41 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 42: This is northern Ramsey County: marginally area in the north (~42A), and strong DFL area is the south (~42B). Senator Jason Isaacson (D) is running for his first reelection against Republican teacher Ben Schwanke. Schwanke was last seen in the 2012 Special election to SD59 (in Minneapolis, not overlapping with this seat at all), losing handily to Kari Dziedzic; Isaacson is safe. Freshman DFL Rep Kelly Moller is running against businesswoman Candy Sina (R). Sina is not seen as a serious candidate, and this is a pretty lopsidedly DFL area. In 42B, Democrats have incumbent Jamie Becker-Finn going for a 3rd term, and Republicans have gone with retired healthcare executive Sue Finney. Finney, like Sina, is not raising much money for her campaign and is not a serious candidate.
House 42A: Obama (D) 51-46, Clinton (D) 52-38, Walz (D) 58-39
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 42B: Obama (D) 57-41, Clinton (D) 55-35, Walz (D) 61-36
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate Seat 42: Safe D (Safe D)
District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district next door district 42, insomuch as 43A in the north is DFL leaning, and 43B is strongly DFL. DFL Senator Charles Wiger has held this seat since 1996. Wiger is a mainstream Democrat, and like many 60-something mainstream Democrats in bluing districts across the country in 2020, he faced a primary from the left. Wiger dispatched of his primary opponent 70-30 and is safe for reelection against 2016 GOP candidate Bob Zick. Wiger defeated Zick 56-37 in 2016, and it Zick isn’t going to do better this year. In 43A, Peter Fischer (DFL-43A) is running for his 6th term against Republican challenger Paul Babin. Babin is not a serious candidate, and Fischer is safe. 43B, 8-term incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection against GOP sacrificial lamb Jordan Herzog.
House 43A: Obama (D) 56-42, Clinton (D) 53-38, Walz (D) 59-38
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 43B Obama (D) 57-40, Clinton (D) 52-39, Walz (D) 62-38
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 43 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 44: Rich suburbs but not really exurbs. Plymouth used to be a Republican stronghold, but has moved further and faster left than any other large city in the state. While Minnetonka is by now a pretty DFL city (something unthinkable a generation ago), and moving further that direction steadily after formerly resembling Plymouth politically. This seat has fully realigned from R to D with one exception: the really fluky Republican pickup of SD44 in 2016 by Paul Anderson. Anderson himself saw the writing on the wall and GTFO instead of facing certain defeat. Republicans landed lawyer / banking executive Gregory Pulles as a last-minute replacement candidate. Pulles appears to be running as a center-left Republican, campaigning on reducing carbon footprint, environmentalism, closing education gaps in minority groups etc. He seems like a solid candidate and has fundraised better than any Republican candidate for the Minnesota legislature this cycle. The problem for Pulles is that he has been outraised 2:1 by the person who has raised more than any legislator in the entire state of either party, engineer / professor Ann Johnson-Stewart. Johnson-Stewart will be the next Senator in this seat as it is simply too far gone for the GOP to be competitive any longer. Both DFL Reps are freshmen, but both are safe for reelection. 44A Rep Ginny Klevorn has garnered former retired Air Force Lt. Colonel Perry Nouis and is safe for reelection regardless. 44B Rep Patty Acomb faces off against her 2018 opponent Gary Porter. Porter will lose by the same 63-37 margin from 2018.
House 44A: Romney (R) 51-48, Clinton (D) 53-38, Walz (D) 55-42
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 44B: Obama (D) 54-44, Clinton (D) 57-35, Walz (D) 60-37
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 44 Rating: Safe D (Likely D) (flip)
District 45: Crystal, New Hope and half of Golden Valley. My home! I bought a house in Golden Valley in 2015, and have lived here ever since. Crystal and New Hope are more working-class inner suburbs, while Golden Valley is more middle class to upper middle class and home to a little-known company called General Mills, as well as some nearly-as-unknown companies UnitedHealth and Buffalo Wild Wings. Ann Rest (DFL) has held her Senate seat since 2000, and is not at risk of losing it now against Some Dude Republican Roxana Bruins and LMN candidate Andy Schuler. Lyndon Carlson has represented 45A here without campaigning every biennium since 1972. Carlson is 78 years old, is the Dean of the House and is hanging it up this year. There was a primary to replace him, with lawyer Cedrick Frazier getting the official DFL endorsement against non-profit executive Daonna Depoister, with Frazier winning 69-31. This seat is safely in the blue column in November against Republican restaurateur Jesse Pfliger. In 45B, Mike Freiberg (DFL-Golden Valley) won his seat for life in 2012. I actually live just down the street from him and he is the only politician I keep a lawn sign for. He faces Republican Ken Fitzgerald in November. 45B is even bluer than 45A, so the race is effectively moot.
House 45A Obama (D) 59-39, Clinton (D) 58-33, Walz (D) 62-33
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 45B Obama (D) 63-34 Clinton (D) 63-27 Walz (D) 69-28
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 45 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 46: St. Louis Park, Hopkins and half of Golden Valley. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is an aging center-left upper-middle-class suburb, similar to Golden Valley to the north. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state, though certainly not the most Democratic, electorally speaking. Senator Ron Latz has represented this seat since 2006 and faces only token GOP candidate Bryan Bjornson. 46A is home to Representative Ryan Winkler, who represented this seat from 2004-2014 when he left to go to Europe for a few years. Now-LG Peggy Flanagan held the seat thereafter for 2 terms before running and winning LG in 2018. That cycle Winkler, now home from a few years overseas, won his old seat back, and is now going for a 7th non-consecutive term, and will win handily against 2016 GOP nominee against Flanagan Anne Taylor, where Flanagan won 64-36. In incumbent Secretary of State Steve Simon’s old seat 45B, DFL Representative Cheryl Youakim is running against Republican Mellissa Moore in a 2018 rematch, which she will win for her 4th term by a similar 74-25 margin.
House 46A: Obama (D) 64-34, Clinton (D) 66-26, Walz (D) 70-26
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 46B: Obama (D) 66-32, Clinton (D) 68-23, Walz (D) 73-24
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 46 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 47: Republican heavy area in the SW exurbs. The DFL has historically had exactly zero presence here, but like much of suburbia, the leftward trends are starting to make their presence known even this far out. SD47 GOP incumbent Scott Jensen, a Freshman legislator, is retiring after 4 years in office. Jensen made some rather splashy headlines as basically the only doctor around taking up the Trump mantle in April that COVID-19 is merely the common cold, and started the rumors that COVID 19 death counts were being fabricated entirely (he later backtracked on this, kind of). Jensen, if he can overcome his reputation as a COVID denier, is seen as ginning up for a run against Walz for Governor in 2022. The race to succeed Jensen brought out a bunch of candidates, and both parties have primaries on August 11th for the right to be on the November ballot. The DFL endorsed 28-year-old DFL staffer Addie Miller, who went on to defeat 2018 Chanhassen mayoral candidate Bala Chintaginjala in the DFL primary. Victoria mayor Tom Funk and Chanhassen City Councilwoman Julia Coleman fought to a draw at the Carver County GOP Convention and went into the August primary, with Coleman emerging by a surprisingly comfortable 64-36 margin, which was largely attributed to her public backing from Jensen. While moving left, this area is not in purple territory as of 2020, and Coleman should win her seat in the Senate rather comfortably. In the more conservative 47A half, GOP incumbent Jim Nash (R-47A) faces token Democratic opponent Arlan Brinkmeier, who is not running a serious campaign. Freshman GOP Rep Greg Boe (R-47B) had a remarkably narrow initial victory in 2018, edging out DFLer Donzel Leggett by 116 votes. Leggett is not running again, and the DFL has backed psychologist Dan Kessler. Kessler doesn’t have the fundraising chops that Leggett did, but has still managed to significantly outraise Boe, and Chaska is moving left hard and fast in the age of Trump. Romney won the seat by 14, Trump won it by 3, and Johnson/Walz were within 40 votes of each other last cycle, so this is as marginal of a seat as you will find in the state at this point, which was unthinkable even a decade ago. Small edge to the incumbent, but this one sits on a razor’s edge.
House 47A Romney (R) 63-35, Trump (R) 60-31, Johnson (R) 59-38
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
House 47B Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 47-44, Johnson (R) 48.46-48.28
Rating: Lean R (Toss-up)
Senate 47 Rating: Safe R (Likely R)
District 48: The southern part of this district is formerly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen home), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka that aren’t in 44B, as well as a slice of Eden Prairie. The senate sees Freshman DFLer Steve Cwodzinski running for reelection for the first time. Republicans have an interesting candidate running against him in Chinese immigrant and school counselor Jeff Jiang. This area has just changed too much for Republicans to be in contention here, though Jiang appears to be quite the strong candidate and has fundraised better than even most incumbent Senators, even so much as to keep this seat from being rated as Safe D down the stretch. For the cycles 2012-2016, HD48A had been home to some of the closest elections in the chamber, with Dems going 3-0 in that time. However, by 2018 it was no longer close, with Laurie Pryor winning by 19, with no signs of the trends from right to left changing or slowing here, Pryor is safe for reelection against GOP chiropractor Eric Wessels. Democrat Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn (DFL-48B) defeated former GOP Rep Jennifer Loon in this Eden Prairie based seat in a bit of an upset, but the tide of change comes with unseating some even long-standing overperformers every once in a while. Republicans are not letting this seat fall off their radar entirely though, as they recruited Harvard educated Eden Prairie School Board Director Holly Link. Link is probably as good of a GOP recruit as could have hoped for, short of a Loon rematch. Link has not exactly been super great at fundraising, nor has been garnering quite as much interest as one might expect for a candidate of that caliber in a district against a freshman. But there appears to not be enough money or interest in a State House seat when all GOP resources are being funneled exclusively into a handful of Senate seats, as the party is fully triaging the House elections in hopes of retaining a seat at the redistricting table in 2021.
House 48A: Obama (D) 52-46, Clinton (D) 55-36, Walz (D) 59-38
Rating: Safe D (Likely D)
House B: Romney (R) 52-47, Clinton (D) 52-39, Walz (D) 55-42
Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
Senate 48 Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginally blue, while the eastern part is quite blue. Edina used to be an affluent Republican stronghold, but has quickly become politically liberal while maintaining its stereotypically affluent status. 2-term Senator Melisa Lopez Franzen, seen as a political up and comer who will run for higher office someday, will face off against Julie Dupre, the winner of the August GOP primary. Given the fact Dupre has raised pennies, Franzen will win by a blowout margin again. To exemplify how hard and fast Edina has moved left, in 2018, 49A was represented by a Republican. He lost as incumbent by 17 that November, and the GOP is not even fielding a candidate against the freshman DFLer who defeated him: Heather Edelson. To 49B, once about as politically even of a district as you would find anywhere, has moved left cycle over cycle, and is now firmly in the blue column, and getting more so every year. Freshman DFLer Steve Elkins is running for a second term against a last-minute GOP filer Joe Thalman. Elkins is quite politically experienced, having served on the Bloomington City Council and the Met Council (and immensely powerful regulatory body) before running for 49B last cycle. Elkins is safe.
House 49A Obama (D) 52-47, Clinton (D) 59-32, Walz (D) 61-37
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 49B Obama (D) 52-46, Clinton (D) 56-36, Walz (D) 62-38
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 49 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually lived in this district for a time before I bought my house in Golden Valley. Senator Melissa Halverson Wiklund (DFL) is running for a 3rd term against GOP Some Dude Dean WM Mumbleau. Halverson Wiklund is safe. DFLer Freshman Michael Howard (DFL-50A) easily won his first election after being talked into being State Rep instead of Richfield Mayor, and is safe for a second term in November. 50B was the sight of a massive turnover in 2016, and is probably easier to describe chronologically. For the first time in 4 elections (1 special, 2 generals) this race WON’T be between DFLer Andrew Carlson, and GOPer Chad Anderson. Anderson got sick of the losing streak in the blue and bluing district and stepped aside for 2020, allowing Republican Gary Heyer to carry the red banner. Heyer isn’t really raising money, but his entire campaign website that looks like a Trump Twitter storm that includes bolded and large typeface gems such as “Andrew Carlson has abdicated his authority and responsibility to represent the voters of Bloomington 50B to Governor Walz” mid-paragraph. This is a district Walz carried by over 25 points. So…. Good luck with that, I guess?
House 50A Obama (D) 64-34, Clinton (D) 61-30, Walz (D) 67-29
Sating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 50B Obama (D) 57-41, Clinton (D) 55-36, Walz (D) 61-35
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 50 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This was really swingy territory in the south metro. It was swept by Republicans in 2010, and swept by Democrats in 2012, yet the leftward trend of the area meant Dems maintained the Senate and both of the House since then. In The senate, incumbent DFLer Jim Carlson is against a decent recruit here in retired National Guard Lt. Colonel Douglas Willetts, but this seat is too blue for him to win. Sandra Masin has held 51A uninterrupted since 2012, and all but 1 term since 2006. Masin has a formality primary against Justin Clark and a formality GE against Patrick Zurick; Ultimately Masin will win regardless. Laurie Halverson is retiring after 8 years in the legislature. Democrats have rallied around and endorsed Star Tribune business columnist Liz Reyer, and she defeated long-time Eagan mayor Mike Maguire in the August DFL primary. Ryer faces off against Republican Fern Smith in the General Election. Smith’s fundraising never took off, and her website choice of 100% avoidance of political positions or even partisan affiliation has not been a winning strategy.
House 51A: Obama (D) 55-42, Clinton (D) 54-37, Walz (D) 59-36
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 51B: Obama (D) 51-47, Clinton (D) 53-37, Walz (D) 55-42
Rating: Safe D (Likely D)
Senate 51 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 52: This is the liberal parts of northern Dakota County that was added to MN-2 in the 2012 redistricting, moving the needle leftward on its PVI. This senate seat is held by freshman DFLer Matt Klein who won in 2016 after 30-year incumbent James Metzen (DFL) passed away that year. Republicans recruited pilot Thomas Settell against Klein, but hasn’t raised much money or attention. Rick Hansen is the DFL incumbent in 52A, and has been since 2004. Republicans nominated Mariah de la Paz, but it should be expected that Hanson will win by his customary 20-25-point margins. Republicans briefly picked up HD52B for 1 term in 2016 when the long term moderate incumbent Joe Atkins retired and the much more liberal Mary T’Kach ran against Republican Regina Barr. But Barr’s tenure was short lived as Ruth Richardson, a more mainstream Dem ran and defeated her in 2018 by a surprisingly large 8-point margin. Richardson is running again this cycle. Republicans are running local retiree Cynthia Lonnquist against Richardson. This seat hasn’t garnered much attention or dollars so it is getting moved to Safe D, as the House has been triaged to focus on the Senate.
House 52A: Obama (D) 59-39, Clinton (D) 56-35, Walz (D) 61-34
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 52B: Obama (D) 53-45, Clinton (D) 49-42, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Safe D (Likely D)
Senate 52 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 53: Western Woodbury and Maplewood and Oakdale. Maplewood is a very awkwardly shaped city, and the part of it in district 53 is the SW tendril. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly less so, with Oakdale being recently ever-so-slightly Republican leaning. DFL Senator Susan Kent won with a narrow 1% victory in 2016, after having a similarly narrow 2012 initial victory. Kent garnered a BLM-flavored primary challenger Marquita Stephens, and won 2:1, but honestly that wasn’t a great showing for her, relatively speaking. Republicans see one of their few possible pickup opportunities against her, and are running former Woodbury Mayor and 2018 gubernatorial also-ran candidate Mary Giuliani Stephens. Giuliani-Stevens (no relation to Borat 2 costar Rudy Giuliani) is a legitimate candidate, and Kent is taking this seriously. Still, this area has shifted quite a bit to the left leaving it blue instead of mostly purple a decade ago; like many of the suburbs, 53 is moving leftward a little more each year. IN spite of Kent’s less-than-stellar toplines, this is a Clinton+13, Walz+16 suburban seat that is trending left. The two candidates have kept even on the fundraising grounds, so this is getting kept at Lean D, but on the edge of Likely D. In 53A, freshman DFL Rep Tou Xiong, a member of the Minnesota Hmong community and has drawn only a token challenger from local GOP engineer William Johnston, whose campaign seems to have been solely creating a black-and-white 1-page MS Word website and nothing more; Xiong is safe. Xiong is a name to watch in future years for a leadership role. Octogenarian freshman Steve Sandell won his seat in a mild upset in 2018, and is running for reelection. Republicans wanting to win this seat back are going with 2001 Mrs. Minnesota and self-help business owner Kelly Jahner-Bryne. It appears as though Jahner-Bryne’s campaign website is a subsidiary of her self-help business website, which leads me to believe this is all a grift. While Sandell is old, he is doing the fundraising and campaigning in excess of his MLM opponent, so this is getting moved to Likely D.
House 53A: Obama (D) 56-41, Clinton (D) 54-37, Walz (D) 60-36
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
House 53B: Romney (R) 52-47, Clinton (D) 50-42: Walz (D) 54-44
Rating: Likely D (Lean D)
Senate 53 Rating: Lean D (Lean D)
District 54: This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another, with 54A being far more Democratic than 54B. This seat saw 3 open races in 2016, with Republicans winning both House seat while the Dems winning the Senate seat (go figure). Incumbent Senator Karla Bigham is running for reelection after first winning her seat in a special election in 2018. Running for the GOP is 2016 nominee Leilani Holmstadt (she lost to former Senator Dan Schoen 53-47 that year). Bigham is a solid favorite here as the incumbent against a former unsuccessful candidate for this same seat, in a suburban area moving left.. 54A the more DFL friendly of the seats, and is centered around eastern Cottage Grove, and South St Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul proper). Incumbent Anne Claflin (D-54B) won her first term in 2018 51-49. The man she unseating, former 1-term GOP Rep Keith Franke is back for Round 2. Surprisingly, this race hasn’t drawn the level of attention a lot of other rematches have. Yes it’s a Clinton+3, Walz+15 seat in the suburbs, but Franke had won this seat previously, and was a mayor in the area before that. Keeping it at Likely D, but Franke should have come out stronger than he did. 54B is swingy, and carried very narrowly by Obama, and then by Trump. GOP Rep Tony Jurgens is running for reelection against Hastings School Board member Kelsey Waits. Jurgens narrowly defeated a comparable challenger in 2018, and while Jurgens came out of the gate super slow, his fundraising has picked up a bit over the last couple months, almost catching the challenger’s cache. Narrow advantage to the incumbent, but only barely.
House 54A: Obama (D) 56-42, Clinton (D) 50-42, Walz (D) 55-40
Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
House 54B: Obama (D) 49.15-48.57, Trump (R) 48-42, Walz (D) 50-46
Rating: Lean R (Toss-up)
Senate 54 Rating: Likely D (Likely D)
District 55: Scott County. This is mostly Republican territory, but there are some purple dots starting to show up in places like Shakopee (which is almost all of 55A). The Senate district is boring with Eric Pratt (R) going to win over his Dem challenger, Somali-American disability case manager Sahra Odowa. Odowa appears to have a decent campaign infrastructure in place and is raising the dough (more than Pratt), but the district outside of Shakopee is still quite red, and is safe for the incumbent this cycle. The REAL action is 100% in 55A. Some background, former GOP Rep Bob Loonan got a DUI, and his personal behavior was getting more and more erratic, causing a primary challenger from Erik Mortensen in 2018. Loonan and Mortensen are NOT cordial with one another in any way shape or form. Mortensen ultimately defeated Loonan in the endorsement convention. Loonan, enraged, went forward to a contentious primary anyways, with Mortensen won narrowly. Mortensen then went on to lose to Democratic mayor of Shakopee Brad Tabke (perhaps the DFL’s top recruit of the cycle) in November that year. Loonan blames Mortensen for costing Republicans (and him) this seat, meanwhile Mortensen still thinks Loonan is crazy. Fast forward a year, and Bob Loonan announces his run for his old seat against Tabke. Within a week, Mortensen gets in the same race to defeat Loonan again (and ultimately Tabke, this time). At the county convention, Mortensen wins the endorsement in March 2020. Loonan flips out, declares war on the GOP, and announced he is going forward with the primary in August anyways. The primary was nasty and contentious with Mortenson narrowly defeating Loonan (again). Meanwhile, Brad Tabke is working his reddish district hard and makes it publicly shown he is the grownup in the room. Since the primary, both Tabke and Mortenson have run a much more traditional red-blue campaign and this race is expected to be close. Still, given the leftward trend in Shakopee in recent years and Tabke’s incumbency, he is the favorite going into election day. 55B is also boring with 4 term incumbent Tony Albright assured a 5th term against his Dem opponent Andrea Nelson.
House 55A: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump (R) 47-43, Walz (D) 49-46
Rating: Lean D (Lean D)
House 55B: Romney (R) 60-38, Trump (R) 57-34, Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 55 Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
District 56: This is swingy Burnsville and a sliver of Apple Valley to the east (56B) and marginally Republican Savage to the west (56A). Incumbent Senator Dan Hall, a preacher by trade, is running for reelection against 2016 candidate for HD56B Lindsey Port (Port lost 52-47 against Roz Peterson). Port is best known for her involvement in the Al Franken #MeToo resignation the next year, however. Port beat out multiple other Democrats for the endorsement, and looks to be well-funded heading into November. Like many suburbs, this area has changed drastically under Hall’s feet. For instance, Democrats hold both House seats in this senate district, which would have been hard to imagine possible at the start of the decade, or even 5 years ago. It’s also one of only two Senate districts in the state right now, where both House seats are held by the opposite party; the other is SD58. This is now getting moved to a Likely D affair at this point, given the brand of theocratic conservatism Hall brings to the table, and the changes that have occurred in the district in recent years (from Romney+2 through Clinton+4, to Walz+8), and Port’s name recognition and fundraising advantage over the incumbent (4:1 for the cycle). Freshman Dem Rep Hunter Cantrell (DFL-56A) came out of nowhere to win this seat against a 25-year-old incumbent in 2018. Cantrell didn’t like life in St. Paul, and is not running for reelection, and neither is the now 27-year-old former representative from this seat. Democrats didn’t score a recruitment win here, but Republicans did. Dems are running 32-year-old social worker Jess Hanson. Republicans got former State Rep Pam Myhra to run for the seat she held from 2011-2015. Since that time, Myhra has been Marty Siefert’s successful running mate for governor in 2014, and then she lost to DFLer Julie Blaha for the open State Auditor office in 2018. Myhra is definitely the stronger candidate, but this seat has changed since she last ran for this office in 2012, so this race would be a Toss-up, though gun to my head, I give the advantage to Myhra, if only by a curly one. We have a second open House seat in one senate seat, due to a second D freshman not liking St. Paul (weird coincidence), as Alice Mann is hanging it up after just 2 years. The woman Mann unseated 53-47, Roz Peterson, is running for her old job again. Democrats are going with political newcomer businesswoman Kaela Berg. 56B is a couple points to the left of 56A, and Peterson is not as strong of a candidate as Myhra, so 56B is a Lean D affair, as Roz lost this seat by 6 when the seat was 2-years earlier in the blue shift.
House 56A: Romney (R) 51-47, Clinton (D) 47-44, Walz (D) 52-46
Rating: Lean R (Toss-up)
House 56B: Obama (D) 49.07-48.78, Clinton (D) 48-43, Walz (D) 53-43
Rating: Lean D (Lean D)
Senate 56 Rating: Likely D (Lean D) (flip)
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is swingy area around Rosemount, and slightly more Republican area around Apple Valley. Senator Greg Clausen (D) is going for his 3rd term. Republicans have an interesting situation here, with two political neophytes getting the GOP endorsements in two of the districts here: husband and wife combo. Jose Jiminez is the husband and Republican nominee for SD57 against Clausen. Following a last-minute flurry of registrations at the filing deadline set in motion like dominos when Lori Swanson filed for governor last minute, the DFL had to scramble to get a candidate to hold HD57A in 2018, as Erin Murphy tapped freshman DFL rep Erin Maye Quade to be her running mate on the eve of registration deadline. This worked out in the favor of then-newbie Robert Bierman, as he won the endorsement, the primary, and the general election, thus holding this seat going into reelection in 2020. Bierman will face off against 22-year-old college student Megan Olson who beat out a political staffer for the endorsement before the filing deadline. Bierman is in good shape going into November, and without a ton of outside help, Olson is being left to fend for herself politically in a hostile district. Olson has promise as a candidate, but this isn’t the cycle/district for her., but not moving the rating quite yet given Olson is actually running a campaign. In the slightly more conservative Apple Valley based 57B, Freshman Rep John Huot (D) won his first term in 2018, in what was then a rematch after losing to then-incumbent Anna Wills in 2016. Huot will be running against the wife in the husband/wife combo: Sandra Jimenez. Also of note, Sandra and Jose are the parents of 2016 57A GOP nominee Ali Jimenez-Hopper. Huot is safe for reelection.
House 57A: Obama (D) 51-47, Clinton (D) 49-42, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Safe D (Likely D)
House 57B: Obama (D) 49.07-48.78, Clinton (D) 48-44, Walz (D) 53-44
Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
Senate 57 Rating: Safe D (Safe D)
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. This was once pretty Republican turf (56% Romney), and is still not super DFL-friendly, but like most suburbs and exurbs, it’s moving that direction. This has a marquee Senate election, as Matt Little is seen as the prime target for a GOP pick up to offset a sure loss in SD44. The Republican Party has endorsed Zach Duckworth, a national guard officer and firefighter. Little is a proven overperformer, as a Senator and as the mayor of Lakeville before that, so he has an advantage out of the gate, as he won by 1 point on the same ballot Trump won by 14, and the district is moving left like most suburbs. For whatever reason though, this seat has not drawn the jaw-dropping dollars that other highly contested suburban seats are. Duckworth is an okay candidate and has raised a respectable amount of money, but only a fraction of what other high-profile Senate candidates are raising. I give a narrow edge to Little given the fact he is such a serial overperformer, but this is a tough hold for any Dem. In the Lakeville based 58A sophomore GOPer Jon Koznick is a strong favorite against DFL teacher Erin Preese, though Preese is outraising Koznick by quite a bit and is running a viable campaign, so this race is sticking at Likely R, as Biden may actually carry Lakeville, which would be the first time a non-Klobuchar Dem has won Lakeville in a statewide race in living memory. Pat Garofalo has represented Farmington in the House since 2004, and will continue to do so until at least 2023. Democrats put up Some Dude candidate in Sara Wolf against Garofalo, not that it matters.
House 58A: Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 50-46
Rating: Likely R (Likely R)
House 56B: Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 57-35, Johnson (R) 53-43
Rating: Safe R (Safe R)
Senate 58 Rating: Lean D (Lean D)
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 70-30 DFL+. I will keep the segments brief unless there is something important involving the DFL primary.
District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. Senator Bobby Joe Champion has been a cornerstone of North for a long time, and has represented the area in the legislature since 2008, first as a Representative now as a Senator. Champion fended off a primary challenger in Somali-American businessman Suleiman Isse. This wasn’t Champion’s first primary, and likely won’t be his last, but that won’t be for another couple years yet. There are major cultural divides between the African American population and the Somali-American populations in North, which often appear in a lot of gang war, and school violence with each group attacking the other at various times. Fue Lee unseated a sitting state rep in the 2016 primary to get his seat and only has a Green challenger in November. 59B Representative Raymond did not fair so well in his primary against young lawyer Esther Agbaje. Agbaje won the primary against Dehn 48-41, and got herself a state house seat.
House 59A: Clinton 78-14
House 59B: Clinton 79-13
District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students), and a small sliver into Cedar-Riverside, and its large Somali community. 2-term incumbent Senator Kari Dziedzic is running again, as is 2020 Special election winner Sydney Jordan in 60A. 60B representative Mohamud Noor, the man who replaced Ihlan Omar in the legislature in the 2018 elections, is outright unopposed.
House 60A: Clinton: 76-14
House 60B: Clinton: 79-12
District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the richest area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the less affluent parts of the city, as this is as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. 18-year incumbent Senator Scott Dibble, Representative Frank Hornstein, first elected the same time as Dibble, and Freshman Jamie Long are all safe for additional terms.
House 61A: Clinton 81-12
House 61B: Clinton 81-12
District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the northern edge. This is the most Democratic, most liberal, and most politically homogenous district in the entire state. Senator Jeff Hayden lost the endorsement and the primary to 2018 62A also-ran Omar Fateh, who will take Hayden’s place in the legislature. Freshman Rep Hodan Hassan in 62A and fellow freshman Aisha Gomez in 62B are both safe for reelection.
House 62A: Clinton 83-7
House 62B: Clinton 85-7
District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Long-time Incumbents Patricia Torres Ray (63) Jim Davnie (63A) are both running again, with Davnie surviving his primary challenge from April Kane in August. Jean Wagenius (63B) is retiring after 34 years in office. Political organizer Emma Greenman got the endorsement, and won the 3-way primary to secure her spot in the legislature next session.
House 63A: Clinton 81-11
House 63B: Clinton 73-18
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins, so the focus is on races with DFL primaries.
District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Erin Murphy represented 64A before her failed gubernatorial run in 2018. Following that loss, she has had the path cleared for her as 34-year incumbent Richard Cohen is retiring to give his seat to her to give her a comfy perch to plan her next political move. Kaohly Her won Murphy’s seat when it was vacated last cycle, and is safe for 2 more years. Dave Pinto (DFL-64B) will be back for a 4rd term without issue.
House 64A: Clinton 78-13
House 64B: Clinton 73-18
District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. 30-year incumbent Senator Sandy Pappas is running again, and faces a primary in regional United Negro College Fund director Laverne McCartney-Knighton. In a costly primary, Pappas prevailed 64-36. Representatives Rena Moran (65A) and Carlos Mariani (65B) are running again and are safe for reelection.
House 65A: Clinton: 80-12
House 65B: Clinton 74-17
District 66: This is the northern edge of St. Paul, and includes the State Fair Grounds, and a tiny sliver of Roseville to balance population. Longtime Senator John Marty is running again and is a shoo-in for another term. Alice Hausman (66A) likewise did not have a primary challenger this cycle. John Lesch (DFL-66B) however did have a primary, and lost to activist lawyer Athena Hollins 61-39. Hollins will take her seat in January following the GE.
House 66A: Clinton 67-24
House 66B: Clinton 76-16
District 67: This is the eastern part of St. Paul. Sophomore Senator Fuong Hawj did not have a primary. Tim Mahoney (67A) has represented eastern St. Paul in the House since the 1990s, and is retiring, leaving an open seat. After some political posturing, the DFL backed St. Paul Public Schools maintenance mechanic John Thompson. Thompson was personal friends with Philando Castille, who was murdered by police during a traffic stop in 2016 in a high-profile case that was a precursor to the fallout from the murder of George Floyd, as nothing came of the Castille murder, which enraged the Twin Cities Community, setting the stage for what happened after George Floyd was likewise murdered by police 3.5 years later. Thompson had a contested primary, but prevailed 59-41 over Hoang Murohy. Freshman 67B Rep Jay Xiong will be getting a second term in November.
House 67A: Clinton 70-21
House 67B: Clinton 70-22
Current projected breakdown is a 74-60 DFL majority in the house (is 75-59 going into the election), and a 38-29 DFL majority in the Senate (is 35R-32DFL going into the election). There are 9 Lean R and 5 Lean D seats in the House, as well as 6 Lean R and 7 Lean D seats in the senate).