Constructing a baseline for Florida results presents much more difficult challenges than those posed by any state that has thus far gone to the polls.
In Iowa, in both 2008 and 2012, Mitt Romney was the less conservative establishment candidate who was up against a more conservative alternative whose base was found primarily among evangelicals (Huckabee in 2008, Santorum in 2012).
In New Hampshire in both 2008 and 2012, Romney was the more conservative, establishment candidate running against the more mavericky, left-leaning, and independent leaning alternative (McCain in 2008, Paul + Huntsman in 2012).
In South Carolina, Romney stepped into the shoes of McCain, finding his strongest support among moderates along the coast and in the Midlands, running against the more conservative alternative whose support was concentrated among evangelicals and very conservative voters (Huckabee in 2008, Gingrich in 2012).
Florida is altogether more difficult to evaluate.
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