BeloitDem's Congressional Race Ratings, November 2021

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 07, 2021 · 2:47 PM PST

2021/11/07 · 14:47

Welcome to the November 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings!s. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

CA-GOV

CO-GOV

CT-GOV

IL-GOV

OR-GOV

MD-GOV

NM-GOV

RI-GOV

ME-GOV

MN-GOV

NV-GOV

AZ-GOV

GA-GOV

KS-GOV

MI-GOV

PA-GOV

WI-GOV

NH-GOV

MA-GOV

FL-GOV

IA-GOV

OH-GOV

SC-GOV

TX-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-SEN

NV-SEN

AZ-SEN

GA-SEN

NH-SEN

PA-SEN

WI-SEN

NC-SEN

FL-SEN

IA-SEN

OH-SEN

MO-SEN

Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN

Note on house ratings: States will be added to the House rating list on a case by case basis. Intially, I’m just rating at large seats and seats where the range of possible redistricting results is narrow enough to allow a reasonable approximation of a rating. A table of which states have been rated and which states haven’t is below the rating table.

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-7

CT-2

CT-5

IL-6

IL-13

IL-14

IN-1

MN-3

NH-2

OR-4

OR-5

OR-6

TX-28

CO-8

IL-17

MN-2

NC-2

NV-3

NV-4

IA-3

ME-2

NH-1

TX-15

VA-2

VA-7

CO-3

IA-1

NE-2

WI-3

AK-AL

AR-2

CO-4

CO-5

IA-2

MN-1

MN-8

MT-1

NC-4

NC-11

NC-14

NE-1

TX-23

TX-24

VA-1

VA-5

WI-1

WI-6

WI-8

Rated States	Unrated States
AK, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, IA, IL, IN, MA, ME, MN, MS, MT, NC, NE, NH, NV, ND, OR, RI, SD, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY	AL, AZ, CA, FL, GA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, TN, WA

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday October 06, 2021 · 6:38 AM PDT

2021/10/06 · 06:38

Welcome to the October 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings!s. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

CA-GOV

CO-GOV

CT-GOV

IL-GOV

OR-GOV

MD-GOV

NJ-GOV

NM-GOV

RI-GOV

ME-GOV

MN-GOV

NV-GOV

VA-GOV

AZ-GOV

GA-GOV

KS-GOV

MI-GOV

PA-GOV

WI-GOV

NH-GOV

MA-GOV

FL-GOV

IA-GOV

OH-GOV

SC-GOV

TX-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-SEN

NV-SEN

AZ-SEN

GA-SEN

NH-SEN

PA-SEN

WI-SEN

NC-SEN

FL-SEN

IA-SEN

OH-SEN

MO-SEN

Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-7

CO-8

CT-2

CT-5

IN-1

MN-3

OR-4

OR-5

OR-6

TX-28

MN-2

NH-1

NH-2

NV-3

NV-4

ME-2

TX-15

VA-2

VA-7

CO-3

MT-WEST

NE-2

WI-3

AK-AL

AR-2

CO-4

CO-5

MN-1

MN-8

NE-1

TX-23

TX-24

VA-1

VA-5

WI-1

WI-6

WI-8

Rated States	Unrated States
AK, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, IN, MA, ME, MN, MS, MT, NE, NH, NV, ND, OR, RI, SD, TX, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY	AL, AZ, CA, FL, GA, IL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, PA, SC, TN, UT, WA

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday September 02, 2021 · 7:10 AM PDT

2021/09/02 · 07:10

Welcome to the September 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! I’m switching to a monthly schedule because we’re about to start seeing a lot more actual House districts. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

CA-GOV

CO-GOV

CT-GOV

IL-GOV

OR-GOV

MD-GOV

NJ-GOV

NM-GOV

RI-GOV

ME-GOV

MN-GOV

NV-GOV

VA-GOV

AZ-GOV

GA-GOV

KS-GOV

MI-GOV

PA-GOV

WI-GOV

NH-GOV

MA-GOV

FL-GOV

IA-GOV

OH-GOV

SC-GOV

TX-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-SEN

NV-SEN

AZ-SEN

GA-SEN

NH-SEN

PA-SEN

WI-SEN

NC-SEN

FL-SEN

IA-SEN

OH-SEN

MO-SEN

Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-7

CO-8

CT-2

CT-5

MN-3

MN-2

NH-1

NH-2

NV-3

NV-4

ME-2

VA-2

VA-7

MT-WEST

WI-3

AK-AL

CO-3

CO-4

MN-1

MN-8

VA-1

VA-5

WI-1

WI-6

WI-8

Rated States	Unrated States
AK, CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, MA, ME, MN, MS, MT, NH, NV, ND, RI, SD, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY	AL, AR, AZ, CA, FL, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, MT, NE, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, WA

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday June 26, 2021 · 9:24 AM PDT

2021/06/26 · 09:24

Welcome to the Summer 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! I got bored and rated a bunch of states where the rage of redistricting results are limited, ratings might shift line a position or so if the districts are substantially different from what I’m expecting. This will also probably be the last rating on a quarterly schedule since I expect to start seeing a lot more maps after the Census data comes out in August. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

CO-GOV

CT-GOV

IL-GOV

OR-GOV

MD-GOV

NJ-GOV

NM-GOV

RI-GOV

ME-GOV

MN-GOV

MI-GOV

NV-GOV

VA-GOV

AZ-GOV

GA-GOV

KS-GOV

PA-GOV

WI-GOV

NH-GOV

MA-GOV

FL-GOV

IA-GOV

OH-GOV

SC-GOV

TX-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-SEN

NV-SEN

AZ-SEN

GA-SEN

NH-SEN

PA-SEN

WI-SEN

NC-SEN

FL-SEN

IA-SEN

OH-SEN

MO-SEN

Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-7

CO-8

CT-2

CT-5

MN-3

MN-2

NH-1

NH-2

NV-3

NV-4

ME-2

VA-2

VA-7

WI-3

MT-WEST

AK-AL

CO-3

CO-4

MN-1

MN-8

VA-1

VA-5

WI-1

WI-6

WI-8

Rated States	Unrated States
AK, CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, MA, ME, MN, MS, MT, NH, NV, ND, RI, SD, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY	AL, AR, AZ, CA, FL, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, MT, NE, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, WA

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday March 27, 2021 · 12:21 PM PDT

2021/03/27 · 12:21

Welcome to the Spring 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! (I think I’m moving to quarterly on this project until we start actually having House diststricts). All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

CO-GOV

CT-GOV

IL-GOV

OR-GOV

MD-GOV

NJ-GOV

NM-GOV

RI-GOV

VA-GOV

ME-GOV

MN-GOV

MI-GOV

NV-GOV

AZ-GOV

GA-GOV

KS-GOV

PA-GOV

WI-GOV

NH-GOV

MA-GOV

FL-GOV

IA-GOV

OH-GOV

SC-GOV

TX-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-SEN

NV-SEN

AZ-SEN

GA-SEN

NH-SEN

PA-SEN

WI-SEN

NC-SEN

FL-SEN

IA-SEN

OH-SEN

MO-SEN

Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

NH-1

NH-2

NV-3

NV-4

ME-2

AK-AL

Rated States	Unrated States
AK, DE, HI, ID,MA, ME, MS, NH, NV, ND, RI, SD, VT, WV, WY	AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday November 19, 2020 · 9:33 AM PST

2020/11/19 · 09:33

Welcome to the inital edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district, and underlined seats represent seats for which the 2020 election result is still unclear, As always, feel free to quibble.

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

CO-GOV

CT-GOV

IL-GOV

OR-GOV

MD-GOV

NJ-GOV

NM-GOV

RI-GOV

VA-GOV

ME-GOV

MN-GOV

MI-GOV

NV-GOV

AZ-GOV

GA-GOV

KS-GOV

PA-GOV

WI-GOV

NH-GOV

MA-GOV

FL-GOV

IA-GOV

OH-GOV

SC-GOV

TX-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-SEN

NV-SEN

AZ-SEN

GA-SEN

NH-SEN

NC-SEN

PA-SEN

WI-SEN

FL-SEN

IA-SEN

OH-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

NH-1

NH-2

NV-3

NV-4

ME-2

AK-AL

Rated States	Unrated States
AK, DE, HI, ID, ME, MS, NH, NV, ND, RI, SD, VT, WV, WY	AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI

BeloitDem BeloitDem's Congressional Race Ratings, November 2020

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 01, 2020 · 3:06 AM PST

2020/11/01 · 03:06

Welcome to the FINAL edition of BeloitDem’s 2020 congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble. I’ll be splitting which way I think the seats I have rated pure tossup will fall in the comments.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Likely d

lean D

tossup

lean r

likely R

NE-02

FL (Tilt D)

ME-02

NE-01

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

NC-GOV

MT-GOV

MO-GOV

NH-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

CO-SEN

MN-SEN

NH-SEN

VA-SEN

AZ-SEN

MI-SEN

ME-SEN

NC-SEN

IA-SEN

GA-SEN A

GA-SEN-B

MT-SEN (Tilt R)

AK-SEN

KS-SEN

SC-SEN

TX-SEN

AL-SEN

MS-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

AZ-2

CA-10

CA-39

FL-27

FL-13

KS-3

ME-2

MI-11

MN-2

NH-1

NJ-5

NJ-11

NV-3

NV-4

NY-19

OR-4

PA-7

PA-17

PA-8

TX-32

WA-8

WI-3

AZ-1

CA-21

CA-25

CA-48

GA-6

GA-7

IA-1

IA-2

IA-3

IL-14

MI-8

NJ-3

NJ-7

NY-11

SC-1

TX-7

TX-23

TX-24

VA-2

VA-7

AZ-6

CO-3

FL-26 (Tilt D)

IN-5

MI-3

MO-2 (Tilt D)

MT-AL (Tilt R)

NE-2

NJ-2 (Tilt D)

NM-2 (Tilt D)

NY-22

NY-24 (Tilt D)

OH-1

OK-5

PA-1

PA-10

TX-21

TX-22

UT-4 (Tilt D)

AK-AL

AR-2

IL-13

KS-2

MI-6

MN-1

MN-7

NC-8

NY-1

NY-2

TX-3

TX-10

TX-31

VA-5

WA-3

CA-4

CA-22

CA-50

FL-15

FL-16

FL-18

IL-12

KY-6

MI-7

MN-8

NE-1

NC-9

NC-11

NY-21

OH-10

OH-12

OH-14

PA-16

TX-2

TX-6

TX-25

WI-6

WI-8

SINGLE PARTY GENERAL ELECTIONS

SeAT

RATing

CA-29

CA-53

WA-10

Likely Cardenas

Lean Jacobs

Lean Strickland

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday October 01, 2020 · 5:52 AM PDT

2020/10/01 · 05:52

Welcome to the October 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Likely d

lean D

tossup

lean r

likely R

NE-02

FL (Tilt D)

GA (Tilt R)

ME-02

TX (Tilt R)

NE-01

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

NC-GOV

MT-GOV

MO-GOV

NH-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

MN-SEN

NH-SEN

VA-SEN

AZ-SEN

CO-SEN

MI-SEN

ME-SEN

NC-SEN

IA-SEN

GA-SEN A (Tilt R)

GA-SEN-B

AK-SEN

KS-SEN

MT-SEN

SC-SEN

TX-SEN

AL-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

AZ-2

CA-10

CA-21

CA-39

CA-49

FL-7

FL-27

FL-13

IL-6

KS-3

MI-11

NH-1

NJ-5

NJ-11

NV-4

NY-19

OR-4

PA-6

PA-17

PA-8

TX-32

WA-8

WI-3

AZ-1

CA-25

CA-48

GA-6

GA-7

IA-1

IA-2

IA-3

IL-14

ME-2

MI-8

MN-2*

NJ-3

NJ-7

NV-3

NY-11

PA-7

TX-7

TX-23

TX-24

VA-2

VA-7

AZ-6

FL-26 (Tilt D)

IN-5

MO-2 (Tilt D)

MT-AL (Tilt R)

NE-2

NJ-2 (Tilt D)

NM-2 (Tilt D)

NY-22

NY-24 (Tilt R)

OH-1

OK-5

PA-1 (Tilt R)

PA-10

SC-1

TX-21

TX-22

UT-4 (Tilt D)

AK-AL

CO-3

IL-13

KS-2

MI-3

MI-6

MN-1

MN-7

NC-8

NY-1

NY-2

TX-10

VA-5

WA-3

AR-2

CA-22

CA-50

FL-15

FL-16

FL-18

IL-12

KY-6

MI-7

MN-8

NE-1

NC-11

NY-21

OH-10

OH-12

OH-14

PA-16

TX-2

TX-3

TX-6

TX-25

TX-31

WI-6

WI-8

*Rating for MN-2 is for who will hold the seat in March, regardless of when the election is held.

SINGLE PARTY GENERAL ELECTIONS

SeAT

RATing

CA-29

CA-53

WA-10

Likely Cardenas

Tilt Jacobs

Lean Strickland

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday September 01, 2020 · 6:01 AM PDT

2020/09/01 · 06:01

Welcome to the September 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! Since Washington and California have both finished their primaries, I added rating for single party races just for fun. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Likely d

lean D

tossup

lean r

likely R

FL (Tilt D)

GA (Tilt R)

ME-02

NE-02

TX (Tilt R)

NE-01

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

NC-GOV

MT-GOV

MO-GOV

NH-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

MN-SEN

NH-SEN

VA-SEN

AZ-SEN

CO-SEN

MI-SEN

ME-SEN

NC-SEN

IA-SEN (Tilt R)

GA-SEN A (Tilt R)

GA-SEN-B

KS-SEN

MT-SEN

AK-SEN

AL-SEN

SC-SEN

TX-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

AZ-2

CA-21

CA-39

CA-49

FL-7

FL-27

FL-13

IL-6

KS-3

MI-11

MN-2

NH-1

NJ-5

NJ-11

NV-4

NY-19

OR-4

PA-6

PA-17

PA-8

TX-32

VA-10

WA-8

WI-3

AZ-1

CA-10

CA-48

GA-6

GA-7

IA-1

IA-2

IA-3

IL-14

MI-8

NJ-3

NJ-7

NV-3

NY-11

PA-7

TX-7

TX-23

TX-24

VA-2

VA-7

AZ-6

CA-25

FL-26 (Tilt D)

IN-5

ME-2

MO-2 (Tilt D)

NE-2

NJ-2 (Tilt D)

NM-2 (Tilt D)

NY-22

NY-24 (Tilt R)

OK-5

PA-1 (Tilt R)

SC-1

TX-21

TX-22

UT-4 (Tilt D)

CO-3

IL-13

KS-2

MI-3

MI-6

MN-1

MN-7

MT-AL

NC-8

NY-1

NY-2

OH-1

PA-10

TX-10

WA-3

AK-AL

AR-2

CA-22

CA-50

FL-15

FL-16

FL-18

IL-12

KY-6

MI-7

MN-8

NE-1

NC-11

NY-21

OH-10

OH-12

OH-14

PA-16

TX-2

TX-3

TX-6

TX-25

TX-31

VA-5

WI-6

WI-8

SINGLE PARTY GENERAL ELECTIONS

SeAT

RATing

CA-29

CA-53

WA-10

Likely Cardenas

Tilt Jacobs

Lean Strickland

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday August 01, 2020 · 8:09 AM PDT

2020/08/01 · 08:09

Welcome to the August 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Likely d

lean D

tossup

lean r

likely R

FL (Tilt D)

GA (Tilt R)

ME-02

NE-02

TX ((Tilt R)

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

NC-GOV

MT-GOV

MO-GOV

NH-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

MI-SEN

MN-SEN

NH-SEN

VA-SEN

AZ-SEN

CO-SEN

ME-SEN

NC-SEN

IA-SEN (Tilt R)

GA-SEN A (Tilt R)

GA-SEN-B

MT-SEN

AK-SEN

AL-SEN

KS-SEN

SC-SEN

TX-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

AZ-2

CA-21

CA-39

CA-49

FL-7

FL-27

FL-13

IL-6

KS-3

MI-11

MN-2

NH-1

NJ-5

NJ-11

NV-4

NY-19

OR-4

PA-6

PA-17

PA-8

TX-32

VA-10

WA-8

WI-3

AZ-1

CA-10

CA-48

FL-26

GA-6

IA-1

IA-2

IA-3

IL-14

MI-8

NJ-3

NJ-7

NV-3

NY-11

PA-7

TX-7

TX-23

VA-2

VA-7

AZ-6

CA-25

GA-7

ME-2

MO-2 (Tilt D)

NE-2

NJ-2 (Tilt R)

NM-2 (Tilt D)

NY-22

NY-24 (Tilt R)

OK-5

PA-1 (Tilt R)

SC-1

TX-21

TX-22

TX-24

UT-4 (Tilt D)

CO-3

IL-13

IN-5

KS-2

MI-3

MI-6

MN-1

MN-7

MT-AL

NY-2

OH-1

PA-10

TX-10

WA-3

AK-AL

AR-2

CA-22

CA-50

FL-15

FL-16

FL-18

IL-12

KY-6

MI-7

MN-8

NC-8

NY-1

NY-21

OH-10

OH-12

OH-14

PA-16

TX-2

TX-3

TX-6

TX-25

TX-31

VA-5

WI-6

WI-8

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday July 01, 2020 · 6:42 AM PDT

2020/07/01 · 06:42

Welcome to the July 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Likely d

lean D

tossup

lean r

likely R

FL (Tilt D)

GA (Tilt R)

ME-02

NE-02

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

NC-GOV

MT-GOV

MO-GOV

NH-GOV

VT-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

MN-SEN

NH-SEN

VA-SEN

AZ-SEN

CO-SEN

ME-SEN

MI-SEN

IA-SEN (Tilt R)

GA-SEN A (Tilt R)

NC-SEN

GA-SEN-B

MT-SEN

AK-SEN

AL-SEN

KS-SEN

SC-SEN

TX-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

AZ-2

CA-21

CA-39

CA-45

CA-49

CT-5

FL-7

FL-27

FL-13

IL-6

KS-3

MN-3

NH-1

NJ-5

OR-4

PA-6

PA-17

PA-8

TX-32

VA-10

WA-8

WI-3

AZ-1

CA-10

CA-48

FL-26

GA-6

IA-1

IA-2

IA-3

IL-14

MI-11

MI-8

MN-2

NJ-7

NJ-11

NV-4

NV-3

NY-19

PA-7

TX-7

TX-23

VA-2

AZ-6

CA-25

GA-7

ME-2

MO-2 (Tilt R)

NE-2

NJ-2 (Tilt R)

NJ-3 (Tilt D)

NM-2

NY-11 (Tilt D)

NY-22

OK-5

PA-1 (Tilt R)

SC-1

TX-24

UT-4 (Tilt D)

VA-7

CO-3

IL-13

IN-5

MI-3

MI-6

MN-1

MN-7

NY-2

NY-24

OH-1

PA-10

TX-10

TX-21

TX-22

WA-3

AK-AL

CA-22

CA-50

FL-15

FL-16

FL-18

FL-25

IL-12

KS-2

KY-6

MI-7

MN-8

MT-AL

NC-8

NY-1

NY-21

OH-10

OH-12

OH-14

PA-16

TX-2

TX-3

TX-6

TX-25

TX-31

VA-5

WI-6

WI-8

BeloitDem

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday June 01, 2020 · 5:48 AM PDT

2020/06/01 · 05:48

Welcome to the June 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Likely d

lean D

tossup

lean r

likely R

AZ (Tilt D)

ME-02

NE-02

PA (Tilt D)

NE-01

GOVERNORS

Likely D

Lean D

Tossup

Lean R

Likely R

NC-GOV

MT-GOV

NH-GOV

VT-GOV

MO-GOV

SENATE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

MN-SEN

NH-SEN

VA-SEN

AZ-SEN

CO-SEN

ME-SEN

MI-SEN

NC-SEN

GA-SEN A

GA-SEN-B

IA-SEN

MT-SEN

AK-SEN

AL-SEN

KS-SEN

TX-SEN

HOUSE

likely d

lean d

tossup

lean r

likely r

AZ-2

CA-21

CA-45

CA-49

CT-5

FL-7

FL-27

FL-13

IL-6

KS-3

MN-3

NH-1

NJ-5

OR-4

PA-6

PA-17

PA-8

VA-10

WA-8

WI-3

AZ-1

CA-10

CA-39

CA-48

FL-26

GA-6

IA-1

IA-2

IA-3

IL-14

MI-11

MI-8

MN-2

NJ-7

NJ-11

NV-4

NV-3

NY-19

PA-7

TX-7

TX-23

TX-32

VA-2

AZ-6

CA-25

GA-7

ME-2

MO-2 (Tilt R)

NE-2

NJ-2 (Tilt R)

NJ-3 (Tilt D)

NM-2

NY-11 (Tilt D)

NY-22

OK-5

PA-1 (Tilt R)

SC-1

TX-24

UT-4 (Tilt D)

VA-7

IL-13

MI-3

MI-6

MN-7

NY-2

NY-24

OH-1

PA-10

TX-10

TX-21

TX-22

WA-3

AK-AL

CA-22

CA-50

CO-3

FL-15

FL-16

FL-18

FL-25

IA-4

IN-5

IL-12

KS-2

KY-6

MI-7

MN-1

MN-8

MT-AL

NC-8

NY-1

NY-21

NY-27

OH-10

OH-12

OH-14

PA-16

TX-2

TX-31

VA-5

WI-6

WI-8

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